Jameson Williams shows a modest 54.5% over rate on receptions props with a +0.4 differential above the typical 3.09 line. The 4.1% ROI on overs suggests mild value, but the sample size demands caution. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Williams' reception totals reflect his evolving role in Detroit's explosive offense. The 3.45 average against a 3.09 line indicates consistent modest outperformance, but the narrow differential suggests books have adjusted reasonably well to his usage patterns. The positive ROI on overs stems from Detroit's aggressive passing attack and Williams' increasing target share as he's developed chemistry with Jared Goff. However, the Lions' run-heavy approach in favorable game scripts can limit his volume, explaining the 45.5% under rate. Williams benefits most when Detroit trails or faces high-scoring affairs that demand increased passing volume. His speed creates big-play opportunities, but reception props depend more on consistent targets than explosive plays. The recent under streak of one game isn't concerning given his longer over streaks of five games, suggesting volatility rather than systematic decline. Books appear to have found reasonable equilibrium with his lines, making this more about identifying optimal spots than exploiting a consistent edge. Williams' prop value correlates strongly with game environment and Detroit's offensive game plan.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 4.1% ROI and consistent +0.4 differential above lines provide modest edge, but require selective application. Target games where Detroit projects to trail or face high-scoring environments that necessitate increased passing volume. The main risk is Detroit's tendency to lean heavily on their ground game when leading, which can severely limit Williams' target opportunities and make even modest reception totals difficult to achieve.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receptions prop record all games?
Williams has hit over his receptions prop in 12 of 22 games (54.5%) with a 12-10 over/under record. His average of 3.45 receptions consistently beats the typical 3.09 line by 0.36 receptions per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receptions all games?
Lean over on Williams' receptions props, but be selective. The 4.1% ROI on overs provides modest value when targeting games where Detroit projects to trail or face high-scoring environments requiring increased passing volume.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receptions all games?
Williams averages 3.45 receptions per game across 22 games, which is 0.36 above the typical 3.09 line. This consistent outperformance of roughly one-third reception per game drives the modest positive edge on over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams reception overs when Detroit faces high-scoring opponents or projects to trail, forcing increased passing volume. Avoid when the Lions are heavy favorites likely to control games through their ground attack, limiting his opportunities.