Jameson Williams has delivered exceptional over value in his last 10 games, hitting the over 60% of the time with a massive +17.0 yard average differential above his lines. The Detroit receiver's 65.9-yard average significantly outpaces bookmaker expectations, creating consistent profit opportunities. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Jameson Williams' emergence as a consistent fantasy and betting asset. His 65.9-yard average over the last 10 games represents a 34.8% premium over his typical 48.9-yard line, indicating either market inefficiency or genuine breakout performance. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable profit potential, while the -23.6% under ROI shows how costly it's been to fade Williams during this stretch. What makes this trend particularly noteworthy is the consistency factor - even with a current 2-game under streak, Williams managed a 3-game over streak earlier in this sample, suggesting the underlying offensive usage remains strong. The Lions' high-powered passing attack under Ben Johnson has created an environment where Williams can exceed modest expectations regularly. However, the recent under streak raises questions about whether defenses are adjusting or if this represents natural variance. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots, but the overall trend suggests Williams has been undervalued by oddsmakers throughout this 10-game sample. The key concern is whether this 17-yard differential represents a new baseline or an unsustainable hot streak that will regress toward historical norms.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 17-yard average differential above his lines indicates genuine market inefficiency rather than random variance. The Lions' explosive offense continues creating opportunities for big plays, and Williams has proven he can consistently exceed modest expectations. Primary risk is the current 2-game under streak potentially signaling defensive adjustments or usage changes, making this more of a lean than a strong play.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 55.5 | 19.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 59.5 | 34.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 77.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 47.5 | 143.0 | +95.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 51.5 | 37.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 48.5 | 80.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 50.5 | 28.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 42.5 | 64.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 124.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 37.5 | 53.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jameson Williams props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jameson Williams has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), averaging 65.9 yards compared to his typical 48.9-yard line for a +17.0 differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Williams' receiving yards props. His 17-yard average differential above lines and +14.6% ROI on overs shows consistent market undervaluation, though the recent 2-game under streak warrants some caution.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Williams is averaging 65.9 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which is 17.0 yards above his typical 48.9-yard prop line - a significant 34.8% premium that indicates strong outperformance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams overs when Detroit faces high-scoring games or weak pass defenses. His explosive play ability thrives in uptempo situations, though avoid after multiple consecutive unders due to potential market adjustments.