James Conner's rushing yards have demolished over totals in conference games, hitting 14 of 21 attempts (66.7%) with a massive +13.1 yard average differential. This 27.3% ROI trend represents one of the most consistent rushing props in the NFL. Strong lean over on Conner's conference rushing totals.
Expert Analysis
The Cardinals' ground game transforms against familiar NFC West opponents, with Conner averaging 74.95 rushing yards versus just 61.83 in his prop lines. This isn't random variance—it's systematic exploitation of divisional matchup patterns. Conference games typically feature more conservative game scripts and established tendencies, allowing Arizona's coaching staff to identify and attack specific defensive weaknesses they've studied extensively. Conner's 13.1-yard average differential suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production against teams the Cardinals face twice annually. The sample size of 21 games provides statistical significance, while the recent under streak of just one game indicates no meaningful regression. Division games often produce grindier affairs that favor workhorse backs like Conner, who sees increased touches when Arizona controls pace. The 27.3% ROI demonstrates this isn't just a winning trend—it's a profitable market inefficiency. However, the Cardinals' offensive line health and game script remain critical variables, as negative game flow could cap Conner's ceiling despite favorable matchup dynamics.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Conner's 66.7% over rate and +13.1 differential in conference games represents a clear market inefficiency, particularly when Arizona projects for neutral or positive game script. The ideal spot comes against NFC West opponents where the Cardinals can exploit familiar defensive tendencies. Primary risk involves blowout losses that force pass-heavy approaches, but the consistent overperformance suggests betting overs remains the profitable long-term strategy.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 57.5 | 4.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 86.5 | 117.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 62.5 | 90.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 47.5 | 68.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 68.5 | 8.0 | -60.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 71.5 | 107.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 70.5 | 24.0 | -46.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 60.5 | 86.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 68.5 | 104.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 60.5 | 17.0 | -43.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 64.5 | 122.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 70.5 | 150.0 | +79.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 55.5 | 128.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 54.5 | 45.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 51.5 | 86.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Conner's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
James Conner has gone over his rushing yards prop in 14 of 21 conference games (66.7% rate) since September 2023. He averages 74.95 rushing yards against conference opponents, significantly outperforming his average line of 61.83 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Conner Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet over on James Conner's rushing yards in conference games. His 66.7% over rate and +13.1 average differential represent a clear market inefficiency with 27.3% ROI, making overs the profitable long-term strategy against familiar opponents.
What's James Conner's average Rushing Yards conference games?
James Conner averages 74.95 rushing yards in conference games, compared to an average prop line of 61.83 yards. This +13.1 differential demonstrates consistent overperformance against NFC West opponents where Arizona exploits familiar defensive tendencies.
How reliable is this trend?
Target James Conner rushing overs in conference games when Arizona projects for competitive game scripts. Avoid in potential blowout losses where the Cardinals may abandon the run early, but his 66.7% over rate makes most conference matchups profitable.