James Conner has demolished rushing yards totals with surgical precision, hitting overs in 18 of 29 games (62.1%) while averaging 73.6 yards against a 62.7-yard line. This +10.9 yard differential translates to an impressive +18.5% ROI on overs, making Conner a consistent over machine.
Expert Analysis
Conner's rushing yards dominance stems from Arizona's offensive identity and his workhorse role in their ground game. The Cardinals have leaned heavily on Conner as their primary ball-carrier, and his 73.6-yard average suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his floor. The +10.9 differential between his actual performance and betting lines indicates a systematic market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its sustainability - Conner's role as the clear RB1 in Arizona's offense provides consistent volume, and his ability to find extra yards through contact creates a reliable path to exceeding modest expectations. The 62.1% hit rate demonstrates remarkable consistency, avoiding the boom-bust volatility that plagues many running back props. However, the recent mini-streak of one under suggests some natural regression, and Conner's age (29) and injury history present ongoing risks. The Cardinals' game script dependency also matters - when trailing significantly, they may abandon the ground game entirely. Still, the sample size of 29 games provides statistical confidence, and the substantial ROI gap between overs (+18.5%) and unders (-27.6%) reveals where the smart money should flow.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Conner's consistent volume and the persistent market undervaluation create a sustainable edge, though recent form and game script risks prevent a full endorsement. Target overs when Arizona projects competitive game flow and Conner enters healthy. The +10.9 yard differential and 62.1% hit rate provide mathematical backing for this lean.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 57.5 | 4.0 | -53.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 86.5 | 117.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 74.5 | 110.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 62.5 | 90.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 47.5 | 68.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 68.5 | 8.0 | -60.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 76.5 | 33.0 | -43.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 71.5 | 107.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 71.5 | 53.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 62.5 | 101.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 70.5 | 24.0 | -46.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 60.5 | 86.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 68.5 | 104.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 60.5 | 17.0 | -43.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 64.5 | 122.0 | +57.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Conner's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
James Conner's rushing yards props have hit overs in 18 of 29 games (62.1%) with unders going 11-18. His consistency has generated a +18.5% ROI on overs while unders have lost -27.6%, showing clear directional edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Conner Rushing Yards all games?
Bet over on Conner's rushing yards props. His 73.6-yard average beats the typical 62.7-yard line by 10.9 yards, and the 62.1% over rate with +18.5% ROI provides mathematical backing for this approach.
What's James Conner's average Rushing Yards all games?
James Conner averages 73.6 rushing yards per game across this 29-game sample, significantly outpacing the average line of 62.7 yards. This +10.9 yard differential represents consistent value that oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conner rushing yards overs when Arizona projects competitive game flow and he's healthy. Avoid when the Cardinals face large deficits early, as they'll likely abandon the ground game for pass-heavy comeback attempts.