James Conner's receiving yards props have been a goldmine over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 70% clip with a massive +15.9 yard differential above the typical 16.7 line. This 33.6% ROI represents one of the strongest prop trends in the NFL. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The Cardinals' offensive evolution under Jonathan Gannon has transformed James Conner from a traditional ground-and-pound back into a genuine receiving threat. Averaging 32.6 receiving yards against lines typically set around 16.7, Conner has consistently outperformed market expectations by nearly 16 yards per game. This isn't random variance—it reflects Arizona's strategic shift toward utilizing Conner as a safety valve in their passing attack, particularly on third downs and in catch-up situations. The Cardinals have faced negative game scripts in several contests, forcing them to lean heavily on short passing concepts where Conner thrives. His route-running has noticeably improved, and quarterback Kyler Murray has developed clear chemistry with his veteran back on checkdowns and screen plays. The 7-3 over record spans a diverse sample of game situations, suggesting this trend has staying power rather than being situationally dependent. However, the recent one-game under streak could signal potential regression, especially if Arizona's offensive line health improves and they return to more balanced attack. The biggest risk lies in positive game scripts where the Cardinals can control clock with traditional rushing, limiting Conner's pass-catching opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Conner's receiving role has fundamentally expanded in Arizona's offense, creating sustainable value against lines that haven't fully adjusted. The 70% hit rate and 33.6% ROI are too strong to ignore, particularly when the Cardinals face competitive games requiring balanced offensive approaches. Primary risk is blow-out scenarios limiting passing game usage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 23.5 | 4.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 49.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 28.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 32.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 41.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 14.5 | 80.0 | +65.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 51.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Conner's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
James Conner has hit the over on his receiving yards props in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), averaging 32.6 yards against typical lines around 16.7. This represents a +15.9 yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Conner Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on James Conner receiving yards props. The 70% hit rate and 33.6% ROI over 10 games reflects his expanded role in Arizona's passing attack, creating consistent value against underadjusted lines.
What's James Conner's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
James Conner averages 32.6 receiving yards over his last 10 games, nearly double the typical 16.7 yard line. This +15.9 differential represents one of the strongest prop edges in the NFL currently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Conner receiving yards overs when Arizona faces competitive games requiring balanced offensive approaches. Avoid in potential blowout scenarios where the Cardinals can control clock through traditional ground game.