James Conner's receiving yards props present a clear under opportunity with only 44.4% overs across 27 games. His 18.85-yard average beats the 14.98 line by 3.9 yards, yet the under delivers +6.1% ROI while overs lose -15.2%. This suggests consistent line inflation that creates value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The Cardinals' offensive philosophy appears to limit Conner's receiving ceiling more than oddsmakers recognize. Despite averaging nearly 4 yards above his typical line, Conner hits the over less than half the time, indicating his receiving production follows a boom-bust pattern where modest games dominate. The 7-game under streak versus just 4-game over streak maximum reveals how rarely Arizona manufactures consistent passing game involvement for their primary back. This likely stems from Arizona's tendency to use Conner as a traditional between-the-tackles runner rather than a true pass-catching weapon. The negative ROI on overs despite the favorable average suggests books are pricing in Conner's upside games while undervaluing how often he delivers pedestrian receiving totals. His receiving role appears situational rather than schematic, making the under a more reliable play. The persistence of this trend across nearly two full seasons indicates a structural element rather than random variance, though regression toward his higher average remains a long-term risk.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.1% ROI advantage on unders combined with consistent line inflation creates value despite Conner's above-average production. Target games where Arizona faces strong rushing defenses that might force more passing, as these often disappoint due to Conner's limited route tree. Main risk is Arizona's offensive evolution toward more pass-catching back usage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 23.5 | 4.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 20.5 | 49.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 28.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 32.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 18.5 | 13.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 41.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 14.5 | 80.0 | +65.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 51.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 22.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 11.5 | 14.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 14.5 | 9.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 13.5 | 2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is James Conner's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
James Conner's receiving yards prop record shows 12 overs and 15 unders across 27 games, hitting the over just 44.4% of the time. This under-heavy record persists despite his 18.85-yard average exceeding typical lines by 3.9 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on James Conner Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on James Conner's receiving yards props. The under delivers +6.1% ROI while overs lose -15.2%, indicating consistent line inflation. His boom-bust receiving pattern favors modest totals more often than explosive games despite decent averages.
What's James Conner's average Receiving Yards all games?
James Conner averages 18.85 receiving yards per game against a typical line of 14.98 yards, creating a positive 3.9-yard differential. However, this average masks inconsistent production that favors under bets despite the favorable numbers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target James Conner receiving yards unders when Arizona faces strong run defenses that might theoretically increase his targets. These spots often disappoint due to his limited receiving role, while obvious passing game scripts tend to be overpriced.