Jamaal Williams has consistently underperformed his rushing yards props, hitting the over in just 40.0% of games (4-6-0 record) while averaging 2.1 yards below his typical line. This systematic underperformance has generated a strong 14.6% ROI on under bets. The data points to a clear lean under on Williams' rushing props.
Expert Analysis
Williams' rushing yards trend reveals a player whose market perception consistently exceeds his actual production. Averaging 23.8 yards against lines typically set around 25.9, Williams faces the classic backup running back dilemma where his role remains unpredictable despite steady involvement. The Saints' offensive struggles throughout this sample period have limited rushing opportunities across the board, with Williams often serving as a complementary piece rather than a featured back. His 40% over rate isn't just poor luck—it reflects structural limitations in his usage patterns and the team's offensive approach. The 14.6% ROI on unders demonstrates market inefficiency, as oddsmakers appear to price Williams based on his reputation and potential touches rather than his realistic ceiling in New Orleans' system. The recent streak of one under, following longer stretches of both overs and unders, suggests this isn't a hot-cold pattern but rather a consistent tendency toward modest production. Williams' role as a veteran presence often means his snaps come in specific situations rather than as a workhorse, making consistent yardage accumulation challenging regardless of matchup quality.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 40% over rate and negative 2.1-yard differential create a sustainable edge for under bets, particularly when his line sits above 24 yards. The Saints' offensive limitations and Williams' complementary role support continued modest production. Main risk comes from potential increased usage if New Orleans falls behind early and needs his pass-catching ability, but the overall trend strongly favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 18.5 | 15.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 8.5 | 17.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 19.5 | -1.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 15.5 | 39.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 38.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 23.5 | 43.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 18.5 | 7.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 15.5 | 6.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 58.5 | 29.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 57.5 | 45.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jamaal Williams's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Williams holds a 4-6-0 record on his rushing yards props across all games, hitting the over just 40.0% of the time. This poor over rate has generated a negative 23.6% ROI for over bettors while under bets have produced a profitable 14.6% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jamaal Williams Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Williams' rushing yards props. His 40% over rate and consistent 2.1-yard underperformance versus his line create a clear edge. The Saints' offensive limitations and his complementary role support this systematic underperformance continuing.
What's Jamaal Williams's average Rushing Yards all games?
Williams averages 23.8 rushing yards per game against typical lines around 25.9 yards, creating a negative 2.1-yard differential. This consistent shortfall versus market expectations has been the driving force behind profitable under betting opportunities throughout the sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams under bets when his line exceeds 24 yards, as this amplifies the existing edge. Avoid betting his props in potential blowout losses where garbage time could inflate his touches, but standard game scripts favor the under trend.