Jalen Hurts has been a consistent under performer in divisional rushing yards props, hitting just 30.0% overs with a brutal -5.5 yard average shortfall against the line. This 3-7-0 record represents one of the most reliable fade opportunities in the NFL prop market.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a stark story about Jalen Hurts in divisional matchups. Averaging 31.4 rushing yards against lines typically set around 36.9, Hurts consistently falls short when facing NFC East rivals who know his tendencies intimately. This isn't random variance - divisional opponents have four opportunities annually to study Hurts' rushing patterns, designing specific containment schemes that clearly work. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how the market consistently overvalues his rushing ceiling in these heated rivalries. What makes this trend particularly compelling is its persistence across different game scripts and seasons. Whether Philadelphia is winning or losing, Hurts struggles to find consistent rushing lanes against Dallas, Washington, and New York defenses that prioritize stopping his mobility. The longest under streak of three games shows these defenses can completely neutralize his ground game for extended periods. Division games often feature tighter defensive game plans and more conservative offensive approaches, naturally suppressing individual rushing totals. With Hurts posting a +33.6% ROI on unders, this represents a clear market inefficiency where books haven't fully adjusted to his divisional struggles.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 30.0% over rate and consistent -5.5 yard shortfall create a sustainable edge against divisional opponents who've proven capable of containing Hurts' rushing attack. Target this play when facing teams with strong defensive coordinators and avoid if Philadelphia enters as heavy road favorites where game script might force more designed runs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 30.5 | 16.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 41.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 41.5 | 39.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 56.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 36.5 | 22.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 40.5 | 34.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 39.5 | 30.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 28.5 | 36.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 35.5 | 6.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 42.5 | 34.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jalen Hurts props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Rushing Yards prop record divisional games?
Jalen Hurts is 3-7-0 on rushing yards overs in divisional games, hitting just 30.0% of his props. He averages 31.4 yards against typical lines of 36.9, creating a consistent 5.5-yard shortfall that bettors can exploit.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards divisional games?
Bet under on Jalen Hurts rushing yards in divisional games. The 3-7-0 record and +33.6% under ROI demonstrate a clear edge, as NFC East defenses consistently contain his mobility better than the betting market expects.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Rushing Yards divisional games?
Jalen Hurts averages 31.4 rushing yards in divisional games compared to typical prop lines around 36.9 yards. This 5.5-yard negative differential represents one of the most consistent shortfalls among starting quarterbacks in division matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jalen Hurts rushing unders when Philadelphia faces NFC East opponents, especially on the road or in primetime divisional games where defensive preparation is maximized. Avoid if the Eagles are heavy favorites needing designed quarterback runs.