Jalen Hurts rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with a 57.1% hit rate (20-15 record) and positive 9.1% ROI. Despite averaging 39.86 yards against a 39.07 line, the slight 0.8 yard edge doesn't overcome the consistent underperformance. Lean Under with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The Jalen Hurts rushing yards market reveals a fascinating disconnect between perception and reality. While Hurts maintains his reputation as a dual-threat quarterback, the betting public consistently overvalues his ground production. His 42.9% over rate across 35 games indicates systematic line inflation, likely driven by casual bettors who remember his explosive playoff runs rather than his regular season consistency. The modest 0.8 yard average differential suggests Hurts performs roughly as expected statistically, but the market pricing creates value on the under. This pattern reflects the broader tendency for mobile quarterback rushing props to carry inflated expectations, particularly for high-profile players like Hurts who generate highlight-reel scrambles. The -18.2% ROI on overs demonstrates how expensive these inflated lines become over time. What makes this trend particularly reliable is its consistency - even when Hurts exceeds his line, the frequency isn't sufficient to overcome the juice. The market appears to price in his ceiling performances while underweighting his floor games, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors who can stomach the occasional explosive rushing performance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 57.1% under hit rate combined with positive ROI creates a clear mathematical edge despite the narrow average differential. This trend capitalizes on market inefficiency where public perception inflates lines beyond their true value. Target unders when the line sits at 39+ yards, which represents his historical average threshold. Main risk involves game script scenarios where Philadelphia faces early deficits, forcing Hurts into scramble-heavy situations that can quickly exceed projections.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 36.5 | 72.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 30.5 | 16.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 39.5 | 70.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 37.5 | 36.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 38.5 | 41.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 38.5 | 45.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 41.5 | 59.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 37.5 | 29.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 39.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 41.5 | 39.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 56.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 39.5 | 67.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 35.5 | 37.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 36.5 | 22.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 40.5 | 33.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Jalen Hurts has gone under his rushing yards prop in 20 of 35 games (57.1%) since September 2023. His over record stands at 15-20-0, generating a -18.2% ROI on over bets while under bettors enjoy a positive 9.1% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Jalen Hurts rushing yards props. The 57.1% under hit rate with positive ROI creates a clear mathematical edge. Focus on games where the line exceeds 39 yards, as this represents his historical average threshold where value peaks.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Rushing Yards all games?
Jalen Hurts averages 39.86 rushing yards per game against an average line of 39.07 yards, creating a minimal 0.8 yard positive differential. Despite slightly exceeding expectations on average, the under still hits 57.1% of the time due to line inflation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jalen Hurts rushing yards unders when lines exceed 39 yards and Philadelphia is favored by significant margins. Avoid unders in potential comeback spots or divisional games where scrambling frequency typically increases due to defensive familiarity and game intensity.