Jalen Hurts has been a consistent under play in divisional games, hitting the under 60% of the time (6-4 record) while averaging 213.7 passing yards against a 225.2 line. The 11.5-yard differential and +14.6% ROI on unders signals a clear edge betting against inflated divisional passing totals.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of oddsmakers consistently overvaluing Hurts' passing volume in NFC East battles. His 213.7-yard average falls meaningfully short of the typical 225.2 line, creating sustainable value on the under. This trend stems from Philadelphia's divisional game script tendencies - these contests often feature tighter defenses, more conservative play-calling, and increased reliance on the rushing attack that made Hurts famous. Divisional familiarity breeds defensive adjustments that limit explosive passing plays, while the Eagles' commitment to their ground game intensifies against familiar opponents who've had months to study their aerial concepts. The 40% over rate across 10 games isn't a small sample fluke - it represents a systematic mispricing. Hurts faces defenses that know his tendencies intimately, leading to shorter possessions and more clock-control oriented game plans. The longest under streak of four games demonstrates how this pattern can persist even when oddsmakers should theoretically adjust. However, the recent one-game over streak suggests some regression potential, and playoff-caliber divisional games could shift toward higher-scoring affairs that favor passing volume.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.5-yard negative differential and 60% under rate create legitimate value, but the small sample size and potential for divisional games to turn into shootouts prevents a stronger lean. Target this under when facing weaker NFC East pass defenses or in games with lower totals. The main risk is a high-scoring divisional battle that forces Philadelphia into catch-up mode, inflating Hurts' passing attempts beyond his typical conservative approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 190.5 | 246.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 199.5 | 11.0 | -188.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 223.5 | 221.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 217.5 | 202.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 215.5 | 114.0 | -101.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 233.5 | 301.0 | +67.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 248.5 | 197.0 | -51.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 246.5 | 207.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 246.5 | 319.0 | +72.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 230.5 | 319.0 | +88.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing Yards prop record divisional games?
Hurts is 4-6 over/under on passing yards props in divisional games, hitting the under 60% of the time. This 6-4 under record has generated a +14.6% ROI for under bettors across 10 games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing Yards divisional games?
Bet the under on Hurts' passing yards in divisional games. The consistent 11.5-yard deficit to his lines and 60% under rate create sustainable value against systematically overpriced totals.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing Yards divisional games?
Hurts averages 213.7 passing yards in divisional games compared to typical lines of 225.2 yards. This 11.5-yard negative differential represents the core edge for under bettors in NFC East matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hurts passing yards unders in divisional games with lower game totals or against stronger NFC East pass defenses. Avoid when Philadelphia faces significant deficits that could force increased passing volume.