Jalen Hurts has been a consistent under performer on passing touchdown props in conference games, hitting over just 33.3% of the time across 24 games. His 1.21 average falls significantly short of the typical 1.5 line, creating a clear edge for under bettors with +27.3% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Hurts' passing touchdown production against NFC opponents. Averaging just 1.21 passing touchdowns per game while consistently facing 1.5 lines represents a meaningful 0.3 touchdown gap that has persisted across two seasons. This isn't a small sample fluke - 24 games provides substantial evidence of a systematic issue. The Eagles' offensive identity explains much of this trend. Philadelphia's red zone approach heavily favors Hurts' rushing ability and their powerful ground game, often vulturing potential passing touchdowns. Against familiar NFC opponents who've had multiple opportunities to study film, defenses consistently force the Eagles into their ground-heavy identity. The -36.4% ROI on overs versus +27.3% on unders demonstrates how dramatically the market has mispriced this prop. Hurts currently sits in a two-game under streak, but more importantly, his longest under streak reached four games, suggesting the trend can persist even when regression seems due. The consistency of this pattern across different game scripts, home/road splits, and opponent strengths indicates structural factors rather than random variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 33.3% over rate and significant average differential create clear value, but conference familiarity and the Eagles' run-heavy red zone approach are the driving factors. Target this prop when facing divisional opponents or strong run defenses that will force Philadelphia into their preferred ground game. Main risk is a potential shootout scenario where Hurts is forced to throw more than usual.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jalen Hurts's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Jalen Hurts is 8-16 on passing touchdown overs in conference games, hitting just 33.3% of the time across 24 games. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among starting quarterbacks in divisional play.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jalen Hurts Passing TDs conference games?
Bet under on Jalen Hurts passing touchdowns in conference games. The 33.3% over rate and +27.3% under ROI demonstrate clear market inefficiency, especially when Philadelphia faces familiar NFC opponents who limit his aerial production.
What's Jalen Hurts's average Passing TDs conference games?
Jalen Hurts averages 1.21 passing touchdowns per game in conference matchups, falling 0.3 touchdowns short of the typical 1.5 line. This consistent gap has created profitable under opportunities across two seasons of data.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hurts passing touchdown unders against divisional rivals and strong run defenses in conference games. These opponents force Philadelphia into their preferred ground-heavy approach, limiting Hurts' passing touchdown opportunities while creating maximum betting value.