Jaleel McLaughlin has quietly emerged as a reliable over play on rushing yards props, hitting 6-4 over his last 10 games with a +9.3 yard average differential above his lines. The 60% hit rate combined with strong +14.6% ROI over suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers. Lean over on McLaughlin rushing props moving forward.
Expert Analysis
McLaughlin's rushing yards trend reveals a player whose role has been consistently underestimated by the betting market. Averaging 33.4 yards against lines of 24.1 represents a significant 38.6% differential that speaks to either evolving usage patterns or persistent market mispricing. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates this isn't just variance but genuine edge, while the brutal -23.6% under ROI shows the danger of fading this trend. What makes McLaughlin particularly intriguing is his role as Denver's change-of-pace back behind Javonte Williams, where his explosiveness can create ceiling games that shatter modest expectations. The 6-4 over record across 10 games suggests reasonable consistency rather than boom-bust volatility. However, the recent one-game under streak and lack of detailed split data creates some uncertainty about optimal betting spots. McLaughlin's compact frame and Denver's evolving offensive identity under Sean Payton could create volatility, but the sustained outperformance suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to his expanded role in the Broncos' backfield rotation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. McLaughlin's 33.4 yard average against 24.1 lines represents sustainable value, particularly given Denver's improving offensive efficiency and his defined change-of-pace role. The +14.6% ROI over validates this as more than random variance. Target spots where his line sits in the low-to-mid 20s, avoiding games where Williams' workload might be maximized due to game script or health concerns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 34.5 | -2.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 36.5 | 39.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 28.5 | 69.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 35.5 | 21.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 20.5 | 84.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 16.5 | 19.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 14.5 | 10.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 18.5 | 47.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 22.5 | 35.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jaleel McLaughlin's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
McLaughlin has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% hit rate), averaging 33.4 yards against lines averaging 24.1 yards for a +9.3 yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jaleel McLaughlin Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet over on McLaughlin's rushing yards props. The 60% hit rate, +9.3 yard average differential, and strong +14.6% ROI over his last 10 games indicates consistent market undervaluation of his production.
What's Jaleel McLaughlin's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
McLaughlin has averaged 33.4 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to average prop lines of 24.1 yards, creating a significant +9.3 yard positive differential that suggests sustainable betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target McLaughlin rushing overs when his line sits in the low-to-mid 20s and Denver projects for competitive game script. Avoid spots where Javonte Williams might dominate touches due to blowout scenarios.