Jake Ferguson has been a consistent under performer over his last 10 games, hitting the over on receptions just 40% of the time while averaging 0.6 receptions below his typical line. The under trend shows strong profitability at +14.6% ROI, making Ferguson a prime fade candidate for reception props.
Expert Analysis
Ferguson's reception struggles stem from Dallas's offensive inconsistency and his role as a secondary target in a passing game that has been unreliable throughout the season. The 4.1 average against a 4.7 line reveals consistent market overvaluation, likely due to Ferguson's perceived upside in a Cowboys offense that simply hasn't materialized. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting systematic issues rather than random variance. The tight end position in Dallas has been hampered by poor quarterback play and an offensive line that hasn't provided consistent protection for extended drives. Ferguson's target share has remained relatively stable, but the quality and conversion rate of those targets has declined significantly. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, while the +14.6% under ROI confirms the market's continued overvaluation. Most concerning for over bettors is the lack of positive regression despite multiple opportunities, with Ferguson failing to establish any meaningful momentum even during Dallas's better offensive performances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ferguson's consistent underperformance against inflated lines creates a sustainable edge, particularly when the Cowboys face competent defenses or play in negative game scripts. The primary risk lies in potential garbage time volume if Dallas falls behind early, but the overall trend strongly favors betting under Ferguson's reception totals until the market properly adjusts his pricing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Ferguson's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Ferguson has gone over his receptions prop in just 4 of his last 10 games (40% hit rate) with a 4-6-0 overall record. His longest under streak reached 4 games, demonstrating consistent market overvaluation of his reception totals.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Ferguson Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Ferguson's receptions. The under has generated +14.6% ROI while overs lose -23.6%, and his 4.1 average sits 0.6 receptions below typical lines. The trend shows strong persistence with systematic factors driving the underperformance.
What's Jake Ferguson's average Receptions last 10 games?
Ferguson averages 4.1 receptions over his last 10 games compared to his typical line of 4.7, creating a significant 0.6 reception gap. This differential represents consistent market overvaluation and creates sustainable betting value on the under.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ferguson under props when Dallas faces strong defenses or plays in negative game scripts. Avoid betting his overs entirely given the -23.6% ROI, and focus on under opportunities when lines remain inflated above 4.5 receptions.