Jake Ferguson's reception props have cleared the over at a 56.7% clip across 30 games, generating solid +8.2% ROI for over bettors. The Cowboys tight end averages 4.53 receptions against a 4.03 line, creating a half-catch edge. This represents a lean over opportunity in most matchups.
Expert Analysis
Ferguson's consistent over performance stems from Dallas's evolving offensive identity and his role as Dak Prescott's security blanket. The 4.53 average against a 4.03 line reveals books haven't fully adjusted to Ferguson's expanded usage since becoming the primary tight end. His 56.7% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the +8.2% ROI demonstrates profitable inefficiency in the market. The half-reception edge might seem small, but it's significant for a position where one or two targets can swing outcomes. Ferguson benefits from Dallas's tendency to lean on short-to-intermediate passing when trailing or in neutral game scripts. However, the recent one-game under streak and lack of split data make it difficult to identify optimal spots. The 17-13 over record shows consistency rather than boom-bust volatility, suggesting Ferguson maintains a reliable target floor even in tougher matchups. Books appear slow to adjust his lines upward, possibly undervaluing his chemistry with Prescott and role in Dallas's red zone packages. The absence of extreme streaks (longest over: 3, longest under: 4) indicates balanced performance without major regression risk, though bettors should monitor if Dallas's offensive philosophy shifts significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Ferguson's half-reception edge over market lines, combined with positive ROI and consistent 56.7% over rate, creates a sustainable betting angle. The Cowboys tight end benefits from predictable target volume in Dallas's passing attack. Primary risk involves game script variations and potential offensive line struggles affecting short passing windows where Ferguson thrives most.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 4.5 | 1.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Ferguson's Receptions prop record all games?
Ferguson's reception props have gone over in 17 of 30 games (56.7%) with a 17-13-0 record. Over bettors have generated +8.2% ROI while under bettors lost -17.3%, showing clear market inefficiency favoring the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Ferguson Receptions all games?
Bet the over on Ferguson's receptions. His 4.53 average beats the 4.03 line consistently, producing 56.7% over rate and +8.2% ROI. The market hasn't adjusted to his expanded role as Dallas's primary tight end.
What's Jake Ferguson's average Receptions all games?
Ferguson averages 4.53 receptions per game across 30 contests, compared to his typical 4.03 line. This half-reception edge creates consistent value, as he exceeds expectations by 12.4% on average per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ferguson overs in neutral or negative game scripts when Dallas relies on short passing. Avoid in potential blowout wins where Dallas might emphasize running. His props offer best value early in weeks before potential line adjustments.