Jake Ferguson has been a consistent under performer over his last 10 games, hitting the receiving yards over just 30% of the time with a brutal -9.3 yard average differential. The Cowboys tight end is averaging 32.3 yards against lines set at 41.6, creating substantial under value with +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Ferguson's receiving yards struggles reflect Dallas's broader offensive dysfunction throughout this stretch. The Cowboys have dealt with quarterback instability, inconsistent offensive line play, and a general shift away from tight end-heavy packages that previously featured Ferguson prominently. His 32.3-yard average against 41.6-yard lines suggests oddsmakers are still pricing him based on earlier season production or name recognition rather than current usage patterns. The -9.3 differential is significant enough to indicate systematic underperformance rather than random variance. Ferguson's role has diminished as Dallas has leaned more heavily on their wide receiver corps, particularly in trailing game scripts that have become commonplace. The four-game under streak demonstrates consistency in this reduced role, while the brief over hit likely came in garbage time or against particularly poor defenses. Most concerning for over bettors is that this trend spans multiple game scripts and opponents, suggesting the issue is structural rather than situational. The Cowboys' offensive coordinator changes and quarterback carousel have clearly impacted Ferguson's target share and red zone looks, two critical components of tight end receiving production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ferguson's 70% under rate and nearly 10-yard negative differential create clear value, but the sample size requires caution. Target unders when Dallas is favored or in potential blowout situations where they might establish the run early. The main risk is a return to form if the Cowboys find offensive rhythm, but their current trajectory suggests continued struggles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 41.5 | 18.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 37.5 | 40.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 38.5 | 23.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 37.5 | 32.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 35.5 | 11.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 41.5 | 24.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 46.5 | 71.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 41.5 | 23.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 49.5 | 11.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 46.5 | 70.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jake Ferguson's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Ferguson has gone 3-7-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. He's averaging 32.3 yards against lines typically set around 41.6 yards, creating a significant -9.3 yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Ferguson's receiving yards. The 70% under rate and -9.3 yard average differential provide clear value. Target unders especially when Dallas is favored, as they tend to run more in positive game scripts.
What's Jake Ferguson's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Ferguson is averaging 32.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 41.6 yards. This -9.3 yard differential represents nearly a full reception and demonstrates consistent underperformance against market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ferguson receiving yards unders when Dallas is favored or facing weaker opponents where they might control game flow. Avoid betting his props in potential shootouts or when the Cowboys are significant underdogs requiring pass-heavy approaches.