Jahmyr Gibbs has demolished his rushing yards props over the last 10 games, hitting the over in 7 of 10 attempts (70%) with an 8.2-yard average differential above the line. Currently riding a four-game over streak, this represents a clear edge worth exploiting.
Expert Analysis
Jahmyr Gibbs has transformed into Detroit's primary ground weapon, consistently exceeding market expectations with surgical precision. His 86.1-yard average against a 77.9-yard line reveals oddsmakers are still catching up to his expanded role in the Lions' explosive offense. The 8.2-yard differential isn't marginal variance—it's systematic undervaluation. Detroit's commitment to establishing the ground game, particularly in favorable game scripts where they control tempo, has created consistent rushing volume for Gibbs. His four-game over streak demonstrates momentum and role security that transcends individual matchups. The Lions' offensive line improvements and Gibbs's own development as a between-the-tackles runner have elevated his floor significantly. While the 70% hit rate suggests some regression is mathematically inevitable, the underlying factors—increased snap share, red zone touches, and Detroit's ground-first approach in positive game scripts—remain intact. The biggest risk lies in potential blowout scenarios where Detroit abandons the run early, but even then, Gibbs's receiving ability keeps him involved. His rushing prop success stems from genuine role expansion rather than lucky variance, making this trend more sustainable than typical hot streaks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Gibbs's systematic outperformance of his rushing props reflects genuine role expansion in Detroit's ground-heavy attack. The 8.2-yard differential above market lines indicates continued value, particularly when the Lions control game flow. Primary risk involves early blowouts forcing Detroit into pass-heavy scripts, but Gibbs's dual-threat ability provides insurance even in negative game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 83.5 | 105.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 90.5 | 139.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 95.5 | 117.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 92.5 | 109.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 31.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 43.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 74.5 | 87.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 69.5 | 90.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 72.5 | 69.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 63.5 | 71.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jahmyr Gibbs's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the over on his rushing yards props in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), generating a +33.6% ROI for over bettors while averaging 86.1 yards against a 77.9-yard line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Gibbs's rushing yards props. His 8.2-yard average differential above the line and current four-game over streak indicate the market hasn't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Detroit's ground attack.
What's Jahmyr Gibbs's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Gibbs is averaging 86.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 77.9 yards, creating an 8.2-yard positive differential that represents genuine value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gibbs rushing overs when Detroit is favored or in close games where they can establish ground control. Avoid in potential blowout spots where the Lions might abandon the run early for pass-heavy scripts.