Jahmyr Gibbs has been a consistent over performer in rushing yards at Ford Field, hitting the over in 11 of 19 home games (57.9%) while averaging 72.16 yards against a 59.66 line. The +12.5 yard differential and positive 10.5% ROI on overs creates a clear lean over for home rushing props.
Expert Analysis
Jahmyr Gibbs transforms into a more explosive runner at Ford Field, where the controlled environment and familiar turf conditions maximize his elite acceleration and cutting ability. The 12.5-yard average differential above market lines isn't just statistical noise—it reflects how Detroit's offensive coordinator deploys Gibbs more aggressively in home game scripts. Ford Field's fast track surface suits Gibbs's speed-based skill set perfectly, while the Lions' tendency to control pace at home creates more rushing opportunities in positive game scripts. The 57.9% over rate demonstrates consistent market undervaluation, as oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to how much more effective Gibbs becomes in his home environment. His rushing efficiency metrics spike significantly at home, where he faces fewer stacked boxes due to Detroit's balanced offensive attack being more potent with crowd support. The trend shows remarkable persistence across different game situations, suggesting this isn't dependent on specific matchups but rather reflects a genuine home-field advantage for Gibbs's rushing production. While regression is always possible, the underlying factors—surface familiarity, crowd energy boosting the entire offense, and Detroit's home game planning—suggest this edge has staying power.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 12.5-yard average differential and 57.9% hit rate create legitimate value, especially when Gibbs's home rushing props are set below 65 yards. Target games where Detroit is favored by 3+ points, as positive game scripts amplify the home rushing advantage. Main risk is potential regression to the mean, but the underlying environmental factors supporting this trend remain intact.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 83.5 | 105.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 90.5 | 139.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 31.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 43.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 74.5 | 87.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 72.5 | 69.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 64.5 | 127.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 78.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 48.5 | 84.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 52.5 | 40.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 48.5 | 74.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 50.5 | 25.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 55.5 | 30.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 53.5 | 100.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 47.5 | 54.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jahmyr Gibbs's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the over on his rushing yards prop in 11 of 19 home games (57.9%) since entering the NFL. This 57.9% over rate demonstrates consistent outperformance of market expectations at Ford Field across nearly two full seasons.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards home games?
Lean over on Jahmyr Gibbs rushing yards props in home games. The 12.5-yard average differential above the line and 57.9% hit rate create legitimate value, especially when his home props are set below 65 yards in favorable game scripts.
What's Jahmyr Gibbs's average Rushing Yards home games?
Jahmyr Gibbs averages 72.16 rushing yards in home games against an average line of 59.66 yards. This +12.5 yard differential represents significant market undervaluation of his home rushing production, creating consistent betting value on overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jahmyr Gibbs rushing overs in home games when Detroit is favored by 3+ points and his prop is set below 65 yards. These conditions maximize the home-field advantage while ensuring favorable game scripts for rushing attempts.