Jahmyr Gibbs's rushing yards props present one of the most reliable over trends in the NFL, hitting at a dominant 68.6% rate (24-11 record) with a massive +14.6 yard average differential above the line. The Lions' explosive offense and Gibbs's dual-threat ability create consistent rushing volume that books consistently undervalue.
Expert Analysis
Jahmyr Gibbs has transformed into one of the NFL's most consistent rushing yard producers, averaging 73.31 yards per game against lines averaging just 58.67 yards. This 14.6-yard differential represents exceptional value that stems from Detroit's offensive evolution. The Lions operate one of the league's most aggressive rushing attacks, with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson designing creative packages that maximize Gibbs's explosiveness. His 4.4 speed creates consistent big-play potential that inflates his per-carry average, while Detroit's commitment to establishing the run early keeps his volume steady. The current four-game over streak reflects his growing role within the offense, particularly as the Lions lean more heavily on their ground game in crucial situations. Books appear slow to adjust to Gibbs's increased usage, consistently setting lines that reflect his rookie season limitations rather than his current production ceiling. The 30.9% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable profit potential, while the -40.0% under ROI shows how consistently this trend punishes fade attempts. His longest over streak of six games suggests this isn't random variance but systematic undervaluation. The absence of concerning injury history or workload management issues further supports the sustainability of this trend.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Gibbs's 68.6% over rate coupled with the substantial +14.6 yard differential creates exceptional value that shows no signs of regression. The Lions' commitment to their rushing attack and Gibbs's explosive ability make him a premium over target. The primary risk involves potential game script issues in blowout losses, but Detroit's competitive schedule minimizes this concern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 83.5 | 105.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 90.5 | 139.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 95.5 | 117.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 92.5 | 109.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 68.5 | 31.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 43.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 74.5 | 87.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 69.5 | 90.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 72.5 | 69.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 63.5 | 71.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 66.5 | 65.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 64.5 | 127.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 50.5 | 116.0 | +65.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 61.5 | 63.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 51.5 | 78.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jahmyr Gibbs's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Gibbs holds a dominant 24-11 over record (68.6%) on rushing yards props across 35 games. This represents one of the most reliable over trends among NFL running backs, with consistent profitability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the OVER on Gibbs rushing yards props. His 68.6% over rate and +14.6 yard average differential above the line create exceptional value that books consistently fail to adjust for properly.
What's Jahmyr Gibbs's average Rushing Yards all games?
Gibbs averages 73.31 rushing yards per game compared to average prop lines of 58.67 yards. This massive +14.6 yard differential represents the gap between his actual production and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gibbs rushing overs when Detroit faces competitive games with neutral game scripts. His four-game current streak and 30.9% ROI suggest consistent value regardless of specific matchup conditions.