Hunter Henry has delivered consistent value on receiving yards overs, hitting 60% across his last 10 games while averaging 45.3 yards against a 39.8 line. The +5.5 differential represents genuine market inefficiency, though his current 3-game under streak creates short-term concern. Lean over with measured confidence.
Expert Analysis
Hunter Henry's receiving yards trend reveals a Patriots tight end operating above market expectations despite New England's offensive limitations. The 45.3-yard average against a 39.8 line suggests consistent target share and red zone involvement that books haven't fully priced. Henry's role as Mac Jones' security blanket creates a stable floor, particularly in games where the Patriots trail and need to throw. The 14.6% ROI on overs indicates genuine edge rather than variance, as Henry consistently finds ways to exceed modest expectations through volume rather than explosive plays. However, the recent 3-game under streak coincides with New England's late-season offensive struggles and increased reliance on their ground game. Henry's production heavily depends on game script and the Patriots' willingness to utilize intermediate passing concepts. His yards come primarily through consistent 4-6 yard gains rather than big plays, making him vulnerable to games where New England establishes early leads or abandons the passing attack entirely. The lack of elite athleticism means Henry needs volume to reach his numbers, and recent coaching decisions suggest a more conservative offensive approach that could limit his ceiling moving forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Henry's 5.5-yard average edge over the line represents legitimate value that the market hasn't corrected. Target games where the Patriots face quality opponents or early deficits that force passing volume. The main risk is New England's conservative late-season approach limiting overall pass attempts, but Henry's target share within that smaller pie remains stable enough to justify modest over exposure.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 43.5 | 0.0 | -43.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 42.5 | 39.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 43.5 | 25.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 45.5 | 75.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 42.5 | 44.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 36.5 | 63.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 41.5 | 14.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 38.5 | 56.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 35.5 | 45.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 28.5 | 92.0 | +63.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Hunter Henry's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Hunter Henry has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60%), averaging 45.3 yards against a typical line of 39.8 yards, creating a +5.5 differential that has generated 14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Hunter Henry Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Hunter Henry receiving yards props. His consistent 5.5-yard edge over the line represents genuine market value, though recent conservative Patriots offense creates some concern. Target games with competitive game scripts that force passing volume.
What's Hunter Henry's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Hunter Henry has averaged 45.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games, compared to an average line of 39.8 yards. This +5.5 differential suggests the market consistently undervalues his production despite his reliable target share in New England's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hunter Henry receiving yards overs when the Patriots face quality opponents or trail early, forcing increased passing volume. Avoid games where New England is heavily favored, as they tend to rely more heavily on their ground game in comfortable situations.