Gus Edwards presents a strong under play with just 39.3% overs across 28 games, generating +15.9% ROI for under bettors. His 40.18 rushing yards average barely trails the typical 40.43 line, creating consistent value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Edwards' rushing yards props reveal a systematic underperformance that stems from his role as a complementary back rather than a featured rusher. The 11-17 over/under record represents genuine value, not random variance, because Edwards operates in an offense that frequently abandons the ground game in negative game scripts. His 40.18 average versus the 40.43 line shows oddsmakers consistently overestimate his workload by small but profitable margins. The Chargers' pass-heavy approach under Brandon Staley, combined with Edwards' limited receiving ability, caps his ceiling in most game situations. This isn't a fluke trend—it's structural. Edwards lacks the explosiveness for big plays and doesn't command enough touches to consistently hit overs through volume alone. The -25.0% ROI on overs tells the complete story: bettors repeatedly overvalue his rushing potential based on his Baltimore Ravens history, but his current role simply doesn't support those expectations. The longest under streak of three games demonstrates his consistency in falling short, while even his longest over streak maxed at just two games. This pattern persists because Edwards remains a short-yardage specialist rather than a three-down workhorse, making unders the clear value play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Edwards' 39.3% over rate and +15.9% under ROI create legitimate value, though the small sample size and lack of split data prevent higher conviction. Target unders when the Chargers face competent offenses that could force pass-heavy game scripts, as Edwards' limited receiving role becomes a liability. Main risk is increased usage if Austin Ekeler leaves or gets injured.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 34.5 | 68.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 36.5 | 23.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 35.5 | 36.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 46.5 | 32.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 22.5 | 11.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 30.5 | 27.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 17.5 | 55.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 24.5 | 19.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 41.5 | 9.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 44.5 | 59.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 26.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 44.5 | 20.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 51.5 | 40.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 41.5 | 68.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 41.5 | 31.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gus Edwards's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Edwards' rushing yards props show an 11-17-0 over/under record (39.3% overs) across 28 games from September 2023 through December 2024, with under bettors earning +15.9% ROI while over bettors lost -25.0%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gus Edwards Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Edwards' rushing yards. His 39.3% over rate and +15.9% under ROI demonstrate consistent value, as his complementary role limits big performances and oddsmakers slightly overestimate his typical output.
What's Gus Edwards's average Rushing Yards all games?
Edwards averages 40.18 rushing yards per game, falling just 0.25 yards short of the typical 40.43 line. This small but consistent gap creates profitable under opportunities across his 28-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Edwards rushing yards unders when the Chargers face strong offenses that could force pass-heavy game scripts, as his limited receiving ability becomes a liability in comeback situations where volume alone drives value.