Greg Dortch has been a consistent under performer in receiving yards, hitting the over just twice in 10 games for a brutal 20% success rate. Averaging 12.3 yards against a 19.0 line creates a massive -6.7 differential. This is a strong lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Greg Dortch's receiving yards prop represents one of the season's most reliable under trends, with books consistently overvaluing his production relative to Arizona's offensive reality. The 12.3-yard average against a 19.0 line reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and actual usage patterns. This isn't random variance - it's structural. Arizona's passing offense has struggled with consistency, and Dortch's role as a complementary receiver means his targets fluctuate dramatically based on game script and matchup. The Cardinals' tendency to fall behind early often forces them into hurry-up situations where shorter, possession receivers like Dortch get squeezed out in favor of downfield threats. His longest under streak of six games demonstrates this isn't about a few bad performances, but rather books failing to adjust to his diminished role in the offense. The 52.7% ROI on unders suggests sharp money has already identified this edge, yet books remain slow to correct. With Arizona's offensive line struggles limiting time for routes to develop, Dortch's opportunities for chunk plays remain severely limited, making his props consistently inflated.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 20% over rate and -6.7 yard differential create a massive structural edge that books haven't corrected. Greg Dortch's role in Arizona's struggling offense simply doesn't support these inflated lines. Target this prop when the line sits at 18+ yards, as the Cardinals' offensive limitations make reaching these numbers increasingly difficult. The main risk is a potential blowout where garbage time creates artificial volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 19.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 5.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 12.5 | -1.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 23.5 | 5.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 23.5 | 36.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 33.5 | 7.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 38.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Greg Dortch's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Greg Dortch has gone over his receiving yards prop just 2 times in his last 10 games, posting a dismal 20% success rate. He's averaging only 12.3 yards per game against typical lines around 19.0 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Greg Dortch Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Greg Dortch receiving yards props with high confidence. The 20% over rate and -6.7 yard differential create a massive edge that books haven't corrected, making unders the clear play.
What's Greg Dortch's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Greg Dortch is averaging just 12.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games, falling 6.7 yards short of typical 19.0 lines. This represents one of the season's largest prop differentials for consistent players.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Greg Dortch receiving yards unders when lines are set at 18+ yards, especially in games where Arizona is expected to trail early and abandon their short passing game for downfield attempts.