Greg Dortch has been a consistent under performer in receiving yards props, hitting the over in just 35.3% of games (6-11 record) while averaging 0.9 yards below his typical line. The under bet has delivered a strong 23.5% ROI compared to a brutal -32.6% for overs, making this a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Greg Dortch's receiving yards props present a compelling case study in market inefficiency and role limitations within Arizona's offensive structure. His 35.3% over rate across 17 games represents a significant deviation from the expected 50-50 split, suggesting the market consistently overvalues his upside potential. The 0.9-yard average deficit against his lines may seem minimal, but it's remarkably consistent and reflects deeper structural issues. Dortch operates primarily as Arizona's slot receiver and return specialist, roles that inherently limit his ceiling in traditional receiving metrics. His usage patterns show he's more valuable for short, possession-based targets rather than the explosive plays that push props over. The Cardinals' offensive philosophy under their current system tends to distribute targets across multiple receivers, preventing any single pass-catcher outside of their primary weapons from dominating target share. Additionally, Dortch's 5-foot-7 frame limits his red zone utility, capping his touchdown-dependent yardage spikes. The longest under streak of six games demonstrates how sustainable this trend can be, while the maximum over streak of just two games shows limited ceiling. The market appears to price Dortch based on his occasional big games rather than his consistent role as a complementary piece, creating persistent value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 23.5% ROI on unders combined with Dortch's consistent role limitations creates sustainable value, though the sample size demands caution. Target this bet when his line sits at 23+ yards, as the market tends to overreact to his ceiling games. Primary risk involves potential offensive scheme changes or injury-related target redistribution that could elevate his usage unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 19.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 7.5 | 5.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 11.5 | 5.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 12.5 | -1.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 23.5 | 5.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 23.5 | 36.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 33.5 | 7.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 38.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 27.5 | 35.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 30.5 | 11.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 47.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 34.5 | 14.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 32.5 | 82.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Greg Dortch's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Greg Dortch has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 6 of 17 games (35.3% rate) while going under 11 times. He averages 22.12 yards against typical lines of 23.03, showing consistent underperformance of nearly one full yard per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Greg Dortch Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Greg Dortch receiving yards props. His 35.3% over rate and 23.5% ROI on unders create clear value, especially when his line exceeds 23 yards. His slot role and Arizona's target distribution limit his ceiling consistently.
What's Greg Dortch's average Receiving Yards all games?
Greg Dortch averages 22.12 receiving yards per game across his 17-game sample. This sits 0.9 yards below his typical prop line of 23.03 yards, demonstrating consistent underperformance that creates betting value on the under side of his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dortch receiving yards unders when his line is set at 23+ yards, as the market tends to overvalue his ceiling. Avoid betting during potential offensive scheme changes or when key Cardinals receivers are injured, as increased targets could alter his typical usage patterns.