Geno Smith's rushing yards props at home present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 46.2% of overs across 13 games with a -11.9% ROI on the over side. Despite averaging 14.31 yards versus an 11.58 line, the negative over ROI and current three-game under streak signal lean under.
Expert Analysis
The contradiction between Geno Smith's positive rushing yards differential (+2.7) and negative over ROI (-11.9%) at home reveals a market inefficiency working against over bettors. Smith's 14.31 average suggests he regularly exceeds expectations, yet the poor over returns indicate oddsmakers have overcorrected, inflating lines beyond sustainable levels. The quarterback's mobility remains intact, but Seattle's home game script tendencies appear to limit his scrambling opportunities. With Smith entering his age-33 season, the Seahawks likely prioritize pocket passing at home where they control crowd energy and tempo. The current three-game under streak aligns with this pattern, suggesting recent line adjustments haven't fully captured his reduced rushing volume in comfortable home environments. Most concerning for over bettors is how a player consistently beating his line still produces negative returns, indicating systematic line inflation that makes unders the mathematically superior long-term play. The 2.8% under ROI, while modest, represents the edge in this market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The negative over ROI despite Smith beating his average line indicates systematic overvaluation of his home rushing props. Target unders when the line exceeds 13 yards, particularly in games where Seattle projects as home favorites and can control tempo through their passing attack. Primary risk is a designed rushing game plan or Smith scrambling more due to pass protection breakdowns.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 5.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 2.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 16.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 16.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 72.0 | +62.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 30.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 6.5 | 21.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 13.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 10.5 | -3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 16.5 | -4.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Geno Smith's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Geno Smith's rushing yards props at home games show a 6-7-0 over/under record (46.2% overs) across 13 games from September 2023 to December 2024, with over bettors posting a -11.9% ROI despite his solid rushing production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Geno Smith Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Geno Smith's rushing yards at home games. The -11.9% over ROI despite him averaging above his line indicates systematic line inflation, while under bettors achieve a positive 2.8% ROI in this spot.
What's Geno Smith's average Rushing Yards home games?
Geno Smith averages 14.31 rushing yards in home games compared to an average line of 11.58 yards, creating a +2.7 differential. However, this positive differential hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to inflated lines.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Geno Smith rushing yards unders at home when the line exceeds 13 yards and Seattle is favored. These conditions align with game scripts where the Seahawks control tempo, reducing Smith's scrambling opportunities in comfortable home environments.