Geno Smith's passing yards props have been an under goldmine, hitting just 20% over rate across his last 10 games with a brutal -12.7 yard average differential. The Seahawks quarterback has delivered consistent disappointment against inflated lines, creating a clear fade opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of a quarterback whose production has fallen well short of market expectations. Smith's 233.5-yard average trails his typical line by nearly 13 yards, suggesting oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to Seattle's evolving offensive identity. This isn't random variance—it reflects systematic changes in how the Seahawks attack defenses. The team has leaned heavily into their ground game and shorter passing concepts, limiting Smith's ceiling while keeping him efficient. His five-game under streak earlier in this sample demonstrates the persistence of this trend, likely driven by game script management and a conservative approach in key situations. Seattle's tendency to control tempo and milk clock has compressed Smith's attempt volume, making it difficult to reach the explosive passing totals that drive overs. The -61.8% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that remains stubbornly optimistic about Smith's aerial output despite mounting evidence of a more limited role. Weather factors and divisional matchups within this sample may have contributed, but the consistency suggests deeper structural issues with how Smith's props are priced. Regression is always possible, but the underlying offensive philosophy appears sustainable.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Smith's systematic underperformance against his lines reflects legitimate changes in Seattle's offensive approach rather than temporary variance. The -12.7 yard differential is too significant to ignore, especially with a five-game under streak demonstrating trend persistence. Target unders when lines exceed 240 yards, as the market continues overvaluing his ceiling in this constrained system.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 241.5 | 223.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 251.5 | 160.0 | -91.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 230.5 | 314.0 | +83.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 247.5 | 149.0 | -98.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 255.5 | 233.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 234.5 | 206.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 258.5 | 254.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 248.5 | 221.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 249.5 | 363.0 | +113.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 244.5 | 212.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Geno Smith's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Smith has gone 2-8-0 over/under on passing yards props in his last 10 games, hitting just 20% overs. He's averaging 233.5 yards against lines typically set around 246.2 yards, creating a significant 12.7-yard negative differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Geno Smith Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with high confidence. Smith's 20% over rate and -12.7 yard average differential represent a clear market inefficiency. The trend shows persistence with a five-game under streak, suggesting systematic rather than random underperformance.
What's Geno Smith's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Smith averages 233.5 passing yards over his last 10 games, falling 12.7 yards short of his typical line around 246.2. This consistent underperformance reflects Seattle's ground-heavy offensive approach limiting his aerial volume and explosive opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith passing yards unders when lines exceed 240 yards, especially in divisional games or poor weather conditions. His props offer best value when the market overestimates his ceiling in Seattle's increasingly conservative offensive system.