Geno Smith's passing touchdown props have been an under goldmine, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a devastating -42.7% ROI on overs. Smith averages 1.3 touchdowns against 1.5 lines, creating consistent value on unders with a +33.6% return.
Expert Analysis
Smith's touchdown drought reflects Seattle's offensive regression and his own limitations in the red zone. The 1.3 average against 1.5 lines isn't just bad luck—it's systematic underperformance driven by the Seahawks' struggling offensive line and inconsistent running game that fails to set up short-yardage scoring opportunities. Smith's arm strength limitations become magnified in compressed red zone windows, leading to more field goals than touchdowns. The 5-game under streak that dominated this sample shows this isn't variance—it's a quarterback hitting his ceiling in a deteriorating offensive system. Seattle's pace has slowed as they've fallen behind in games, reducing overall opportunities, while Smith's risk-averse nature leads to checkdowns rather than end zone shots. The 30% over rate is unsustainably low and suggests some regression, but the underlying factors—poor offensive line play, limited weapons, and conservative game management—remain unchanged. Smith's touchdown rate per attempt has declined significantly from early season highs, indicating this trend has structural support rather than being purely statistical noise.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The structural issues driving Smith's touchdown struggles—poor offensive line, limited red zone creativity, and conservative play-calling—haven't been addressed. Target unders when Seattle faces strong defenses or in potential low-scoring divisional games. Main risk is positive touchdown regression and potential garbage-time scoring in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Geno Smith's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Smith went 3-7-0 over/under on passing touchdown props in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% overs. This created a brutal -42.7% ROI for over bettors while unders returned +33.6% profit consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Geno Smith Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean under on Smith's passing touchdowns. His 1.3 average vs 1.5 lines and 70% under rate over 10 games shows clear value. The underlying offensive struggles support continued under performance despite potential regression.
What's Geno Smith's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Smith averaged 1.3 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to typical 1.5 lines, creating a -0.2 differential. This 13% shortfall reflects consistent underperformance rather than temporary variance in touchdown production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith touchdown unders against strong defenses or in divisional games where Seattle tends to play conservatively. Avoid when the Seahawks are significant underdogs where garbage-time scoring could inflate his touchdown total unexpectedly.