Geno Smith's passing touchdown production at home has been remarkably consistent in falling short of expectations, hitting the over in just 31.2% of his 16 home games. With an average of 1.25 touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line, the under has delivered a profitable 31.2% ROI while overs have burned bettors at -40.3%. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Geno Smith's touchdown limitations in the comfort of his own stadium. Averaging 1.25 passing touchdowns per home game against the standard 1.5 line creates a meaningful 0.2 touchdown deficit that has translated into consistent under value. This isn't random variance—it's a systematic pattern rooted in Seattle's offensive identity and Smith's role within it. The Seahawks have historically leaned on their rushing attack and short-to-intermediate passing game, limiting Smith's red zone opportunities for touchdown passes. His 5-11 over/under record at home spans multiple seasons, suggesting this trend transcends temporary factors like injuries or coaching changes. The seven-game under streak demonstrates just how entrenched this pattern has become, while the maximum three-game over streak shows that even Smith's hot stretches are relatively brief. The -40.3% ROI on overs indicates that the betting market consistently overvalues Smith's touchdown potential at home, creating recurring value on the under. With Seattle's conservative offensive approach and Smith's tendency to manage games rather than explode for multiple scores, this home touchdown underperformance appears sustainable rather than due for regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 68.8% under hit rate combined with positive ROI creates a compelling case for continued value on Smith's passing touchdown unders at home. The ideal spot is when the line sits at 1.5 touchdowns, where his 1.25 average provides the clearest edge. The main risk is Seattle's offense evolving toward more aggressive red zone passing, but the multi-season sample suggests this conservative approach is deeply ingrained in their identity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Geno Smith's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Geno Smith's passing touchdowns prop record in home games is 5-11-0 over/under (31.2% overs) across 16 games from September 2023 to December 2024, showing consistent underperformance against betting lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Geno Smith Passing TDs home games?
Bet under on Geno Smith's passing touchdowns in home games. The 68.8% under hit rate and positive 31.2% ROI on unders, compared to -40.3% losses on overs, creates clear value betting against his touchdown production.
What's Geno Smith's average Passing TDs home games?
Geno Smith averages 1.25 passing touchdowns in home games, which is 0.2 touchdowns below the typical 1.5 line. This consistent shortfall has created profitable under opportunities throughout the sample period.
How reliable is this trend?
The best time to bet Geno Smith's passing touchdowns under is when the line is set at 1.5, where his 1.25 home average provides maximum edge, particularly during his current form showing touchdown limitations.