Garrett Wilson has hit the under in 60% of his last 10 games despite averaging 64.4 receiving yards against a 60.8-yard line. The 4-6-0 over record masks consistent value on the under side, generating +14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Wilson's receiving yards props reveal a classic case of inflated market expectations despite consistent production. His 64.4-yard average represents solid WR2 production, but the betting market has consistently overvalued his ceiling potential with lines averaging 60.8 yards. The Jets' offensive struggles under multiple quarterback changes have created a lower-variance passing attack that favors Wilson's floor over explosive games. His target share remains stable around 20-25% of team attempts, but the lack of deep ball efficiency limits his upside potential. The 40% over rate indicates Wilson is more likely to deliver steady, line-level production than exceed inflated expectations. His longest over streak reached just two games, while he's hit three consecutive unders, suggesting the market hasn't fully adjusted to the Jets' conservative offensive approach. The +3.6 average differential above his line appears misleading when considering the frequency of unders. Wilson's role as the primary receiver keeps his floor high enough to avoid dramatic unders, but the ceiling limitations make overs a poor investment. The current one-game under streak follows this pattern perfectly, as Wilson delivered exactly what his usage suggests rather than the explosive performance oddsmakers price in.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wilson's 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on the under side reflects a market that consistently overprices his upside in a constrained Jets offense. Target unders when his line exceeds 62 yards, as the data suggests he's more likely to deliver steady production than explosive games. The primary risk is a potential breakout performance if the Jets' passing game suddenly clicks.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 54.5 | 51.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 51.5 | 66.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 54.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 59.5 | 56.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 59.5 | 114.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 59.5 | 41.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 67.5 | 18.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 70.5 | 41.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 61.5 | 90.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 60.5 | 113.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Garrett Wilson's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Wilson's receiving yards props went 4-6-0 over his last 10 games, hitting the under 60% of the time. He averaged 64.4 yards against lines averaging 60.8 yards, creating a +3.6 differential that masks the frequency of under results.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Garrett Wilson Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Wilson's receiving yards props. The 60% under rate and +14.6% ROI on unders shows consistent value, while overs lose -23.6%. His production is steady but the market overprices his upside potential in the Jets' offense.
What's Garrett Wilson's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Wilson averaged 64.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to average lines of 60.8 yards. While he's exceeded his typical line by 3.6 yards on average, he's hit the under in 6 of 10 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wilson receiving yards unders when his line exceeds 62 yards, especially in games where the Jets are expected to play from behind early. Avoid overs unless facing elite pass defenses that could inflate his target share significantly.