Gardner Minshew's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with only 42.9% overs hitting across 14 games. His 5.14 yard average consistently falls short of the typical 5.93 line, creating sustainable value on unders with +9.1% ROI versus -18.2% on overs.
Expert Analysis
Minshew's rushing profile reveals a quarterback who operates within a structured pocket system rather than relying on scrambling ability. His 5.14 yard average against a 5.93 line demonstrates consistent underperformance, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited mobility. The -0.8 differential indicates books are pricing him closer to a dual-threat quarterback when his skill set aligns more with traditional pocket passers. This disconnect creates systematic value on unders, particularly given the Raiders' offensive philosophy that emphasizes quick reads and timing routes rather than designed quarterback runs. Minshew's physical limitations become more pronounced as defenses key on his tendencies, and his rushing attempts often come from broken plays rather than designed concepts. The 6-8 over/under record with strong under ROI suggests this isn't random variance but a fundamental misevaluation. His recent two-game over streak represents typical short-term noise rather than a meaningful shift in his rushing approach or the Raiders' offensive strategy.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 5.14 versus 5.93 average creates consistent value, supported by strong under ROI and Minshew's pocket-first playing style. Target this prop when lines remain elevated above 5.5 yards, as books continue overestimating his mobility. Main risk involves garbage-time scrambles in blowout losses where Minshew might exceed his typical conservative rushing approach.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 14 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 22.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 7.5 | -2.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 14.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 6.5 | -1.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 5.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 6.5 | 9.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 5.5 | 3.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 3.5 | -1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 10.5 | 0.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Gardner Minshew's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Minshew's rushing yards props have gone over in just 6 of 14 games (42.9%) this season. He's averaging 5.14 yards against typical lines around 5.93, showing consistent underperformance that creates betting value on unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Gardner Minshew Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Minshew's rushing yards props. His 5.14 average versus 5.93 lines creates systematic value, with unders showing +9.1% ROI. His pocket-first style and the Raiders' offensive system limit scrambling opportunities consistently.
What's Gardner Minshew's average Rushing Yards all games?
Minshew averages 5.14 rushing yards per game, falling 0.8 yards short of the typical 5.93 line. This consistent gap reflects his limited mobility and pocket-passing approach, creating sustainable value for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Minshew rushing unders when lines exceed 5.5 yards, particularly in games where the Raiders are favored and can control pace. Avoid during potential blowout losses where garbage-time scrambles might inflate his rushing totals unexpectedly.