Foster Moreau's receptions prop presents a marginal betting edge with his 5-5 over/under record masking underlying value. The tight end averages 2.1 receptions against a 1.9 line, creating a +0.2 differential that suggests consistent slight outperformance despite the balanced record.
Expert Analysis
Foster Moreau's reception totals reveal a player consistently exceeding modest expectations, though the Saints' inconsistent offensive approach creates volatility that explains his balanced 50% over rate. The +0.2 differential between his 2.1 average and typical 1.9 line represents meaningful value in tight end props, where half-reception margins frequently determine outcomes. Moreau's role as New Orleans' primary receiving tight end provides a stable target floor, but the Saints' commitment to running through Alvin Kamara and spreading targets among multiple receivers limits his ceiling. The recent two-game over streak suggests positive momentum, though his longest under streak of three games demonstrates how quickly Saints game scripts can shift away from tight end involvement. Without specific split data, we must rely on Moreau's consistent target share and Derek Carr's tendency to utilize intermediate routes where tight ends thrive. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing, but the slight average advantage suggests books may be undervaluing his consistent involvement in New Orleans' passing attack. Key factors include game script, red zone opportunities, and the health of competing receivers who could either steal targets or create more favorable coverage for Moreau.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +0.2 differential provides genuine edge despite the balanced record, and Moreau's consistent role in New Orleans' passing game supports the slight outperformance. Target games where the Saints project to throw frequently or face defenses vulnerable to tight end production. Primary risk remains game script turning run-heavy early, limiting overall passing volume and Moreau's opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Foster Moreau's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Foster Moreau has gone 5-5 on receptions overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of his overs. Despite the balanced record, he averages 2.1 receptions per game, consistently outperforming the typical 1.9 line by 0.2 receptions.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Foster Moreau Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Foster Moreau's receptions props. His 2.1 average exceeds the standard 1.9 line, providing genuine edge despite the 50% over rate. The consistent slight outperformance makes overs the preferred play with medium confidence.
What's Foster Moreau's average Receptions last 10 games?
Foster Moreau averages 2.1 receptions over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.9 line. This +0.2 differential represents meaningful value in tight end props, where half-reception margins frequently determine betting outcomes.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Foster Moreau reception overs when the Saints project to throw frequently or face defenses vulnerable to tight ends. Avoid games with heavy run-first game scripts that limit overall passing volume and reduce his opportunities.