Foster Moreau has demolished his receiving yards props with a dominant 70% over rate (7-3-0) across his last 10 games, averaging 26.3 yards against a 17.4 line for an impressive +8.9 differential. Currently riding a five-game over streak, the Saints tight end presents compelling value on the over side.
Expert Analysis
Foster Moreau's receiving yards surge reflects his elevated role in New Orleans' evolving offensive scheme. The 26.3-yard average against a conservative 17.4 line suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his increased target share and red zone involvement. This isn't random variance – Moreau's 51% snap rate increase and consistent 3-4 target floor create a sustainable foundation for over results. The Saints' struggles running between the tackles have forced more underneath passing concepts, where Moreau thrives as a reliable chain-mover. His five-game over streak indicates genuine role expansion rather than fluky big plays, with consistent 20+ yard performances becoming the norm. The betting market's slow adjustment creates continued value, as the 17.4 line appears anchored to earlier season usage when Moreau was primarily a blocking specialist. However, regression risk exists if the Saints return injured skill players or if opponents specifically game-plan to eliminate underneath routes. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the overall trend strength and underlying usage metrics support continued over performance until the market fully corrects.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% over rate and +8.9 differential indicate genuine role expansion that oddsmakers haven't fully priced in. Moreau's consistent target floor and the Saints' offensive adjustments create sustainable value on overs. Main risk is market correction or defensive adjustments targeting underneath routes, but the trend remains exploitable in the near term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 24.5 | 31.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 19.5 | 47.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 21.5 | 33.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 17.5 | 39.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 22.5 | 40.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 17.5 | 6.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 50.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 12.5 | 17.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Foster Moreau's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Foster Moreau has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), with only 3 unders. He's currently on a five-game over streak, his longest of the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Foster Moreau Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Foster Moreau's receiving yards. His 70% over rate and +8.9 average differential above the line indicate the market hasn't adjusted to his expanded role in New Orleans' offense.
What's Foster Moreau's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Foster Moreau is averaging 26.3 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 17.4 yards, creating a significant +8.9 differential that suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Foster Moreau receiving yards overs when lines remain around 17-18 yards, as this reflects his old blocking role rather than current usage. Best spots are when the Saints face defensive pressure forcing quick underneath routes.