Elliott's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with just 45.5% overs hitting across 22 games. His 30.09 yard average consistently falls 2.6 yards short of typical lines, generating solid 4.1% ROI on unders while overs lose money at -13.2%.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals Elliott's diminished role in Los Angeles has created a systematic undervaluation in the betting market. At 29 years old and clearly past his prime, Elliott averages just 30.09 rushing yards per game while oddsmakers continue setting lines around 32.73 yards. This 2.6-yard differential might seem small, but it's created consistent value for under bettors who've enjoyed a 4.1% ROI over 22 games. The trend shows remarkable persistence with Elliott hitting the over in fewer than half his appearances. His current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern of a veteran back whose explosive days are behind him. The Chargers' pass-heavy offense under Brandon Staley limits Elliott's opportunities, while his declining burst means fewer chunk gains that historically pushed him over inflated lines. Most concerning for over bettors is the consistency of this underperformance - Elliott isn't just missing by small margins in close games, he's systematically falling short of market expectations. The 54.5% under rate combined with the negative ROI on overs suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Elliott's current reality as a complementary piece rather than a featured back.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Elliott's 2.6-yard negative differential and 54.5% under rate create consistent value, especially when lines exceed 32 yards. The aging back's diminished role in LA's offense makes him a reliable under play. Main risk is potential goal-line usage in favorable game scripts, but his season-long trend strongly favors the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 1.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 13.5 | 17.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-26 | OPP | 26.5 | 19.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 32.5 | 6.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 42.5 | 16.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 30.5 | 40.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 42.5 | 39.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 63.5 | 27.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 60.5 | 25.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 59.5 | 68.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 28.5 | 52.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 36.5 | 46.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 31.5 | 54.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 32.5 | 17.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Ezekiel Elliott props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Ezekiel Elliott's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Elliott's rushing yards props show a 10-12-0 record (45.5% overs) across 22 games from September 2023 to December 2024. He's hit the under 12 times while going over just 10 times, demonstrating consistent underperformance against market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the under on Elliott's rushing yards. His 54.5% under rate and 4.1% ROI on under bets create clear value, while overs lose money at -13.2%. The aging back consistently falls short of lines averaging 32.73 yards.
What's Ezekiel Elliott's average Rushing Yards all games?
Elliott averages 30.09 rushing yards per game, falling 2.6 yards short of typical betting lines around 32.73 yards. This consistent gap between performance and market expectations has created profitable opportunities for disciplined under bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Elliott under props when lines exceed 32 yards, especially in pass-heavy game scripts. His diminished role and age-related decline make him most vulnerable to underperforming inflated numbers, particularly against stronger run defenses that limit chunk yardage opportunities.