Durham Smythe's receiving yards props have delivered consistent value with a 6-4 over record and 60% hit rate over his last 10 games. The Dolphins tight end averages 26.2 yards against a 17.7 line, creating an 8.5-yard edge that translates to +14.6% ROI on overs. Lean Over.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals Smythe as a systematically undervalued receiving option in Miami's offense. His 26.2-yard average significantly exceeds the 17.7 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his expanded role or consistent target share. The 8.5-yard differential is substantial for a tight end prop, indicating either scheme-driven usage or defensive coverage patterns that favor Smythe's production. His 60% over rate demonstrates persistence rather than random variance, particularly with a longest over streak of five games showing sustained offensive integration. The +14.6% ROI on overs confirms this isn't just volume-based luck but genuine market inefficiency. However, the recent one-game under streak and his position's inherent volatility warrant caution. Tight end receiving props can shift quickly based on game script, red zone usage, and defensive attention to other receivers. The lack of available split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots, but the overall trend suggests consistent undervaluation. Smythe's production appears tied to Miami's offensive rhythm rather than game-specific matchups, making this trend more reliable than typical tight end props that fluctuate wildly based on coverage schemes.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 8.5-yard average differential and 60% hit rate indicate genuine market undervaluation of Smythe's role in Miami's passing attack. Target this prop when the line stays around 17-18 yards, as the data suggests consistent production above this threshold. Main risk is the inherent volatility of tight end receiving props and potential scheme changes that could limit his involvement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-13 | OPP | 17.5 | 12.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 19.5 | 54.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 56.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 11.5 | 16.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 11.5 | 17.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 28.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 19.5 | 41.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 29.5 | 15.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 25.5 | 23.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Durham Smythe's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Durham Smythe has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate) with a 6-4-0 record. He's averaging 26.2 yards against a typical 17.7 line, delivering consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Durham Smythe Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Smythe's receiving yards props. The 8.5-yard average differential and 60% hit rate indicate the market consistently undervalues his production. Target lines around 17-18 yards for optimal value with medium confidence.
What's Durham Smythe's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Durham Smythe averages 26.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to a 17.7 average line. This 8.5-yard differential represents significant value, suggesting oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted to his expanded offensive role.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when the line stays around 17-18 yards, matching historical averages. Target games where Miami projects for balanced offensive game scripts, as Smythe's production appears tied to overall offensive rhythm rather than specific matchups.