Drake Maye has hit the over on rushing yards in exactly half his last 10 games with a 5-5-0 record, but his 37.1 yards per game significantly exceeds the typical 26.8 line by 10.3 yards. Despite the balanced win rate, the consistent yardage production suggests lean over value.
Expert Analysis
Drake Maye's rushing profile reveals a quarterback whose mobility creates consistent value against conservative betting lines. His 37.1 yards per game average represents a substantial 38.4% premium over the typical 26.8 line, indicating sportsbooks may be undervaluing his dual-threat capability. The Patriots' offensive system has increasingly incorporated designed runs and scramble opportunities for Maye, particularly as the season progressed and coaches gained confidence in his athleticism. The 5-5 over/under split masks the underlying value proposition - when Maye goes over, he tends to exceed by meaningful margins, while his unders often fall just short of the line. This pattern suggests a betting market still adjusting to his rushing floor as a mobile quarterback in an offense that's learned to leverage his legs. The current 2-game over streak aligns with New England's recent emphasis on quarterback mobility, especially in short-yardage and red zone situations. However, the -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing, making game script and opponent-specific factors crucial for finding edges. Maye's rushing production appears most sustainable when the Patriots face pressure situations or when trailing, forcing more aggressive play-calling that utilizes his scrambling ability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 10.3-yard positive differential between Maye's average and typical lines creates inherent value, even with the balanced 5-5 record. Target overs when New England faces defensive pressure or potential negative game scripts that force Maye into scramble mode. Primary risk remains the Patriots' conservative approach in comfortable game situations that could limit designed runs.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 27.5 | 32.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 26.5 | 30.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 14.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 28.5 | 59.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 27.5 | 26.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 32.5 | 27.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 29.5 | 24.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 17.5 | 95.0 | +77.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 23.5 | 46.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 26.5 | 18.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Drake Maye's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Drake Maye has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games for a 50.0% hit rate. While balanced, his 37.1 yards per game average significantly exceeds the typical 26.8 betting line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Drake Maye Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Drake Maye's rushing yards props. His 37.1 yards per game creates a 10.3-yard cushion above typical lines, and the Patriots' evolving offensive system increasingly utilizes his mobility despite the balanced 5-5 record.
What's Drake Maye's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Drake Maye averages 37.1 rushing yards per game over his last 10 contests, which is 10.3 yards above the typical 26.8 betting line. This 38.4% premium suggests consistent value in over bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Drake Maye rushing overs when New England faces defensive pressure or potential negative game scripts. His scrambling ability becomes most valuable when the Patriots need aggressive play-calling or face third-and-long situations.