Drake Maye's passing touchdown props show a perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record across his last 10 games, with his 1.2 average barely exceeding the typical 1.1 line. The minimal +0.1 differential and negative ROI on both sides suggest efficient market pricing with no clear edge.
Expert Analysis
Drake Maye's passing touchdown production reveals a rookie quarterback finding his rhythm in a conservative offensive system. His 1.2 touchdown average against 1.1 lines represents the slimmest of edges, but the perfectly split 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate the market has accurately priced his output. The Patriots' methodical approach under Alex Van Pelt emphasizes ball security over explosive plays, which naturally caps Maye's touchdown ceiling in most games. His touchdown distribution shows volatility typical of young quarterbacks—capable of multiple-score games when game script favors passing, but equally prone to single-touchdown performances when New England leans on their ground game or faces elite defenses. The current one-game under streak follows a pattern where Maye alternates between efficient scoring games and more conservative outings. Without clear splits data, we must rely on his overall consistency, which suggests he's settling into a role where 1-2 touchdowns per game represents his most likely range. The lack of significant line movement or market overreaction to recent performances indicates oddsmakers have found equilibrium with his pricing.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and minimal +0.1 average differential indicate efficient market pricing that offers no sustainable edge. While Maye's 1.2 average technically favors overs, the negative ROI on both sides and lack of exploitable patterns make this a classic avoid spot where the juice outweighs any perceived advantage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Drake Maye's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Drake Maye has gone 5-5 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, averaging 1.2 touchdowns per game against typical lines of 1.1. This represents a perfectly balanced record with minimal edge either direction.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Drake Maye Passing TDs last 10 games?
Neither side offers a clear advantage. The 5-5 record and negative ROI on both overs and unders indicate efficient market pricing. This is a pass situation where the juice eliminates any minimal edge.
What's Drake Maye's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Maye averages 1.2 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.1 line, creating a minimal +0.1 differential that barely favors overs but lacks statistical significance for profitable betting.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Maye's touchdown props based on this data. The balanced record and negative ROI indicate no optimal timing exists. Focus on games with clearer edges or exploitable market inefficiencies instead.