Dontayvion Wicks has been a consistent under performer on receptions props, hitting the over in just 30% of his last 10 games while averaging 2.0 receptions against a typical 2.6 line. The -0.6 differential and strong 33.6% ROI on unders suggests a clear lean under on future props.
Expert Analysis
Wicks' reception struggles stem from Green Bay's evolving offensive hierarchy and his inconsistent target distribution. The Packers have increasingly relied on their established receivers and running game, leaving Wicks as a boom-or-bust option rather than a consistent target earner. His 2.0 reception average against 2.6 lines indicates oddsmakers are still pricing him based on potential rather than production. The 5-game under streak within this sample demonstrates how quickly Wicks can disappear from the game plan when other options are healthy and effective. His role appears most volatile in games where Green Bay establishes early leads, as they shift to more conservative play-calling that doesn't require his services. The 30% over rate is particularly damning given that most receiver props are set with roughly 50% implied probability. This suggests either a fundamental shift in his usage or persistent overvaluation by the market. The consistency of this underperformance across different game scripts and opponents indicates this isn't merely bad luck but reflects his current standing in the Packers' offensive pecking order.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and -0.6 average differential provide a clear edge, though the small sample size prevents high conviction. Target Wicks reception unders when Green Bay faces quality defenses that force more conservative game plans, or when other Packers receivers are healthy and competing for targets. The main risk is a potential breakout game that could shift his role permanently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dontayvion Wicks's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Wicks has gone 3-7-0 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. This represents a significant underperformance that has created betting value on the under side of his props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dontayvion Wicks Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Wicks receptions. His 70% under rate and -0.6 average differential from typical lines provide a clear edge. The 33.6% ROI on unders demonstrates this trend has been profitable for disciplined bettors.
What's Dontayvion Wicks's average Receptions last 10 games?
Wicks averages 2.0 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.6. This -0.6 differential indicates he's consistently falling short of market expectations by more than half a reception per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wicks reception unders when Green Bay faces strong defenses or when other Packers receivers are healthy. His role diminishes in conservative game scripts and when the team has full offensive weapons available.