Dontayvion Wicks has been a consistent under performer on receptions props, hitting just 31.6% of overs across 19 games with a brutal -39.7% ROI on overs. His 1.89 average sits 0.6 catches below the typical 2.5 line, creating strong value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Wicks' reception struggles stem from Green Bay's run-heavy offensive identity and his inconsistent target share in a crowded receiver room. The Packers have leaned heavily on their ground game this season, limiting overall passing volume and making peripheral receivers like Wicks highly volatile week-to-week. His 1.89 reception average reflects the reality of being the third or fourth option in an offense that prioritizes Christian Watson, Jaylen Reed, and tight end usage. The 31.6% over rate isn't just bad luck—it represents systematic underperformance that books haven't fully adjusted for. Wicks' longest under streak of five games demonstrates how quickly he can disappear from game plans, particularly in favorable game scripts where Green Bay controls tempo. The concerning trend is his inability to establish a consistent floor, with reception totals ranging wildly based on game flow and defensive attention to primary targets. While regression toward the mean is always possible, Green Bay's offensive philosophy and Wicks' role within it suggest this trend has staying power. The -0.6 differential between his average and the standard line creates mathematical value that compounds over time, especially given the Packers' commitment to establishing the run first.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Wicks' 31.6% over rate and -0.6 average differential create legitimate value on reception unders, particularly at the standard 2.5 line. The trend is supported by Green Bay's offensive identity rather than just variance. Primary risk is a potential shift in game plan or injuries to other receivers that could elevate his target share unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dontayvion Wicks's Receptions prop record all games?
Wicks has gone over his receptions prop in just 6 of 19 games (31.6% hit rate) with a record of 6-13-0. His under bets have generated a positive 30.6% ROI while overs have lost 39.7%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dontayvion Wicks Receptions all games?
Bet under on Wicks' receptions props. His 1.89 average sits 0.6 catches below typical lines, and the 31.6% over rate creates mathematical value that compounds over time in this run-heavy Green Bay offense.
What's Dontayvion Wicks's average Receptions all games?
Wicks averages 1.89 receptions per game, which is 0.6 catches below the standard 2.5 line. This -0.6 differential has been remarkably consistent, creating predictable value for under bettors across his 19-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wicks reception unders when Green Bay faces weaker run defenses or when they're favored by significant margins. These game scripts favor their ground attack, naturally limiting passing volume and Wicks' opportunities for multiple catches.