Dontayvion Wicks has been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 20% over his last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI. His 20.1-yard average sits nearly 10 yards below typical lines, creating a clear under lean with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Dontayvion Wicks represents one of the most reliable under plays in the receiving yards market based on his recent 10-game sample. The Green Bay receiver has consistently underperformed expectations, averaging just 20.1 yards against lines typically set around 29.8 yards. This -9.7 differential isn't marginal variance—it's systematic underperformance that suggests books haven't properly adjusted to Wicks's reduced role in the Packers offense. The 2-8 over/under record tells a story of a player whose usage has shifted dramatically, likely due to the emergence of other receivers or changes in offensive philosophy. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency of the underperformance. Wicks isn't alternating between boom and bust games that would suggest variance; instead, he's delivering steady disappointment that indicates a fundamental shift in his target share or efficiency. The current three-game under streak, following a previous four-game under streak, demonstrates the persistence of this pattern. While regression is always possible in small samples, the magnitude of underperformance suggests structural changes rather than temporary variance. Books appear slow to adjust, creating ongoing value for under bettors willing to fade public perception of Wicks's potential.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 20% over rate and -9.7 yard differential create compelling value on the under side. Wicks appears stuck in a reduced role that books haven't fully recognized, making unders the clear play until significant usage changes emerge or lines adjust meaningfully lower. The main risk is positive touchdown variance inflating yardage, but the pattern is too consistent to ignore.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 39.5 | 39.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 17.5 | 13.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 23.5 | 14.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 40.5 | 49.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 39.5 | 30.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 15.5 | 25.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 26.5 | 11.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 57.5 | 20.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Dontayvion Wicks props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Dontayvion Wicks's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Wicks has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 2 of his last 10 games (20% rate) with an 8-2 under record. This represents one of the worst over rates for any regularly-targeted receiver in the NFL during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Dontayvion Wicks Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER with confidence. Wicks's 20% over rate and -9.7 yard average differential create clear value on unders. The pattern is too consistent and the underperformance too significant to ignore, especially with books slow to adjust.
What's Dontayvion Wicks's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Wicks has averaged just 20.1 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 29.8 yards. This -9.7 yard differential represents nearly a full reception's worth of underperformance per game, indicating systematic usage decline.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Wicks receiving yards unders when lines remain elevated above 25+ yards, as books appear slow to adjust. Avoid during potential shootout games where garbage time could inflate numbers, but otherwise the under offers consistent value.