DJ Moore has absolutely crushed reception props with a dominant 22-11 over record (66.7%) across 33 games, averaging 5.82 catches against a 4.71 line for a massive +1.1 differential. Currently riding an 8-game over streak with +27.3% ROI, this is a premium fade-the-books opportunity.
Expert Analysis
DJ Moore's reception dominance stems from his role as Chicago's unquestioned WR1 and safety valve, particularly in an offense that has struggled with consistency at quarterback. The 1.1 reception differential above the line isn't just impressive—it's systematic, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue Moore's target share and catch rate. His 66.7% over rate across 33 games provides robust sample size confidence, while the current 8-game over streak indicates this isn't variance but sustainable production. The +27.3% ROI on overs demonstrates clear market inefficiency. Moore's game-to-game floor remains high because Chicago's offensive limitations often force quick, high-percentage targets his direction. Even in negative game scripts, Moore sees increased volume as the Bears play catch-up. The biggest risk would be a dramatic offensive philosophy change or injury, but Moore's target share has remained remarkably stable across different coordinators and quarterbacks. Regression concerns are minimal given the underlying usage patterns that drive these reception totals.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 66.7% hit rate and 8-game streak create compelling value, especially with the consistent +1.1 differential suggesting systematic line undervaluation. Ideal conditions exist when Chicago faces competent offenses that force passing volume. Main risk is the Bears' offensive inconsistency creating unpredictable game flow, but Moore's target share stability mitigates this concern significantly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 9.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 7.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 5.5 | 8.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DJ Moore's Receptions prop record all games?
DJ Moore has gone over his receptions prop in 22 of 33 games (66.7%) with an 11-game under record. He's averaging 5.82 receptions against a typical 4.71 line, creating a significant +1.1 differential that has produced +27.3% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DJ Moore Receptions all games?
Lean over on DJ Moore's receptions props. The 66.7% over rate, current 8-game streak, and +1.1 average differential above the line suggest systematic undervaluation. His consistent target share as Chicago's WR1 provides a reliable floor for reception production.
What's DJ Moore's average Receptions all games?
DJ Moore averages 5.82 receptions per game compared to his typical 4.71 prop line, creating a substantial +1.1 differential. This gap has been consistent across 33 games, suggesting the market consistently undervalues his reception volume and catch rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities arise when Chicago faces competent offenses that force passing volume, or when the Bears are expected to trail and throw frequently. Moore's target share remains stable regardless of game script, making him less matchup-dependent than typical receivers.