DJ Moore shows strong over tendencies in conference games with a 52.2% hit rate (12-11-0) and averages 76.57 yards against lines averaging 57.59, creating a massive +19.0 differential. Despite the impressive volume edge, negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. Lean Over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
DJ Moore's conference game receiving yards present an intriguing case study in volume versus market efficiency. The Chicago Bears receiver consistently outperforms his posted lines by nearly 19 yards per game, indicating either systematic undervaluation or Moore's enhanced performance against divisional opponents who game-plan specifically for him. This substantial differential suggests Moore benefits from increased target share in conference matchups, likely due to competitive game scripts and Chicago's need to keep pace with division rivals. The 52.2% over rate provides a slight edge, but the negative ROI on both sides reveals sharp market adjustment. Moore's ability to exceed expectations by such a wide margin indicates his floor is higher than oddsmakers account for, particularly when Chicago faces defensive-minded conference opponents that force more passing volume. The trend's persistence across 23 games suggests this isn't random variance but reflects Moore's role as Chicago's primary receiving weapon in divisional battles. However, the market's efficient pricing means profitable opportunities require specific situational advantages rather than blind over betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The +19.0 yard differential is too significant to ignore, even with neutral ROI suggesting market awareness. Target Moore overs when Chicago faces conference opponents allowing high passing volumes or in potential shootout scenarios where his target ceiling rises. The main risk is continued market adjustment that could eliminate the edge, making selective betting crucial rather than systematic over plays.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 56.5 | 86.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-26 | OPP | 55.5 | 54.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 57.5 | 68.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 57.5 | 46.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 54.5 | 49.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 55.5 | 97.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 47.5 | 106.0 | +58.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 44.5 | 62.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 53.5 | 33.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 58.5 | 27.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 52.5 | 105.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 59.5 | 22.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 69.5 | 64.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 66.5 | 159.0 | +92.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 67.5 | 18.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DJ Moore's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
DJ Moore has gone over his receiving yards prop in 12 of 23 conference games (52.2%) with an 11-12 under record. His average of 76.57 yards significantly exceeds the typical 57.59 yard lines he faces.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DJ Moore Receiving Yards conference games?
Lean over on DJ Moore's conference receiving yards, but be selective. The +19.0 yard differential is substantial, but negative ROI suggests the market has adjusted. Target favorable matchups with high passing volume potential.
What's DJ Moore's average Receiving Yards conference games?
DJ Moore averages 76.57 receiving yards in conference games compared to average lines of 57.59 yards. This creates a massive +19.0 differential, indicating he consistently outperforms market expectations against divisional opponents.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DJ Moore receiving yards overs in conference games when Chicago faces pass-funnel defenses or potential shootout scenarios. Avoid when the Bears are heavy favorites or facing elite pass defenses that could limit volume.