DeVonta Smith's reception props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal -42.7% ROI on the over side. Currently riding a four-game under streak, Smith is averaging 4.9 receptions against a 4.6 line, creating consistent value on the under despite the modest +0.3 differential.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about DeVonta Smith's recent reception volume that goes beyond simple variance. While Smith averages 4.9 receptions against a 4.6 line, the 70% under rate suggests books are consistently overvaluing his target share in Philadelphia's evolving offensive system. The four-game under streak indicates a sustained shift rather than random fluctuation, likely reflecting the Eagles' increased reliance on their ground game and A.J. Brown's target dominance when healthy. Smith's reception totals have become increasingly matchup-dependent, with his floor dropping significantly in games where Philadelphia controls the script early or faces softer run defenses. The -42.7% ROI on overs represents one of the worst betting propositions in the receiver market, while the +33.6% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability. This isn't simply about Smith's talent declining—it's about market inefficiency where oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced role in certain game scripts. The persistence of this trend across 10 games suggests structural changes in how Philadelphia deploys Smith, particularly in favorable game flow situations where they can lean on their rushing attack.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate combined with positive under ROI creates a sustainable edge, though the modest +0.3 differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target Smith under props when Philadelphia is favored by more than a field goal, as they've shown increased willingness to control games through their ground attack. Main risk is a potential overcorrection by books or a return to pass-heavy scripts if the Eagles fall behind early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 11.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 4.5 | 2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeVonta Smith's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
DeVonta Smith has gone under his receptions prop in 7 of his last 10 games, posting a 30.0% over rate. This translates to a devastating -42.7% ROI for over bettors while under bettors enjoyed a +33.6% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeVonta Smith Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on DeVonta Smith receptions props. The 70% under rate and positive under ROI create a clear edge, especially when Philadelphia is favored and likely to control the game through their rushing attack rather than aerial volume.
What's DeVonta Smith's average Receptions last 10 games?
DeVonta Smith is averaging 4.9 receptions over his last 10 games against an average line of 4.6, creating a +0.3 differential. Despite beating the line on average, he's gone under in 70% of games, indicating inconsistent volume.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith under props when Philadelphia is favored by more than three points, as they've consistently leaned on their ground game in favorable scripts. Avoid when the Eagles are significant underdogs and forced into pass-heavy game plans.