DeVonta Smith's reception props at home present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 35.0% over rate across 20 games with a brutal -33.2% ROI for over bettors. Despite averaging 5.15 receptions versus a 4.7 line, the under delivers consistent 24.1% ROI. Lean Under with conviction.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about DeVonta Smith's reception patterns in Philadelphia. While his 5.15 average suggests overs should hit regularly, the 7-13-0 record reveals books consistently overvalue his home reception totals. The -33.2% over ROI indicates systematic mispricing, likely driven by public perception of Smith as the Eagles' primary receiving threat. The current four-game under streak suggests this isn't random variance but a persistent pattern. Smith's role in the Eagles offense appears more volatile at home than oddsmakers account for, possibly due to game script variations, red zone target distribution, or complementary weapons like A.J. Brown commanding attention. The 24.1% under ROI demonstrates sharp value exists for contrarian bettors. Books may be inflating lines based on Smith's talent rather than his actual home usage patterns. The consistency of this trend across 20 games provides substantial sample size confidence, though regression remains possible if Philadelphia's offensive philosophy shifts or Smith's target share increases significantly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 65% under rate and positive ROI create a clear edge despite Smith averaging above the typical line. The four-game under streak reinforces this pattern isn't breaking down. Target unders when the line sits at 4.5 or higher, particularly in games where Philadelphia projects to control tempo or utilize multiple receivers heavily.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 4.5 | 11.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 5.5 | 7.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 4.5 | 4.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 9.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeVonta Smith's Receptions prop record home games?
DeVonta Smith's reception props at home show a 7-13-0 record over 20 games, hitting just 35.0% overs. This translates to unders cashing 65% of the time with a profitable 24.1% ROI for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeVonta Smith Receptions home games?
Bet under on DeVonta Smith's receptions at home games. The 65% under rate and 24.1% ROI provide clear value, especially with his current four-game under streak reinforcing the pattern's persistence.
What's DeVonta Smith's average Receptions home games?
DeVonta Smith averages 5.15 receptions in home games versus a typical 4.7 line. Despite this positive differential, unders still hit 65% of the time, indicating books consistently overprice his reception totals.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeVonta Smith reception unders when lines reach 4.5 or higher at home. The edge strengthens in games where Philadelphia projects to control pace or when multiple receivers are healthy and active.