DeVonta Smith's receiving yards props offer a modest edge toward overs, hitting at 52.9% across 34 games with an 8.3-yard cushion above typical lines. The 18-16 over record and positive ROI suggest consistent production, making overs the preferred lean in favorable spots.
Expert Analysis
DeVonta Smith's receiving yards trend reveals a player who consistently exceeds modest market expectations, averaging 65.79 yards against a typical 57.5 line across 34 games spanning nearly two seasons. The 8.3-yard differential represents meaningful value, particularly when considering that sportsbooks often struggle to properly price secondary receivers who benefit from defensive attention on primary targets. Smith's 52.9% over rate might appear marginal, but the positive ROI on overs (+1.1%) versus the significant loss on unders (-10.2%) tells a clearer story about market inefficiency. The Philadelphia offense's high-tempo approach and Smith's role as a reliable chain-mover create consistent volume opportunities that books may undervalue. His longest over streak of five games demonstrates the sustainability of his production when conditions align, while the modest three-game under streak suggests he rarely disappears completely. The absence of dramatic splits indicates Smith maintains steady production regardless of opponent or game script, making him a reliable target for over bets when the line sits in his historical sweet spot around 57-60 yards.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Smith's consistent 8.3-yard edge over typical lines, combined with positive over ROI, creates a sustainable betting angle. Target overs when the line sits at 60 yards or below, particularly in games where Philadelphia projects to throw frequently. Main risk involves potential regression to the mean and the relatively slim 52.9% hit rate requiring careful line shopping.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 52.5 | 69.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 48.5 | 45.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 52.5 | 21.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 60.5 | 55.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 48.5 | 120.0 | +71.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 47.5 | 109.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 46.5 | 37.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 52.5 | 29.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 54.5 | 14.0 | -40.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 55.5 | 87.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 55.5 | 85.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 58.5 | -2.0 | -60.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 58.5 | 64.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 71.5 | 79.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is DeVonta Smith's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
DeVonta Smith has hit the over on receiving yards props in 18 of 34 games (52.9% rate) since September 2023, with 16 unders and no pushes. His average of 65.79 yards consistently beats the typical 57.5-yard line by 8.3 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on DeVonta Smith Receiving Yards all games?
Lean toward betting overs on DeVonta Smith's receiving yards props. His 8.3-yard cushion above typical lines and positive over ROI (+1.1% vs -10.2% on unders) create a sustainable edge when lines sit around 60 yards or below.
What's DeVonta Smith's average Receiving Yards all games?
DeVonta Smith averages 65.79 receiving yards across all games in this sample, compared to the standard 57.5-yard line. This 8.3-yard differential represents consistent value and explains why over bets have generated positive returns while unders lose money.
How reliable is this trend?
Target DeVonta Smith receiving yards overs when lines sit at 60 yards or below, particularly in projected high-scoring games where Philadelphia will throw frequently. Avoid when lines climb above 65 yards, as this approaches his season average and reduces edge.