Desmond Ridder has delivered consistent rushing production over his last 10 games, hitting the over in 6 of 10 attempts (60.0%) while averaging 14.4 yards against a 12.7-yard line. The +1.7 differential and +14.6% ROI on overs suggests bookmakers are undervaluing his mobility. This presents a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Desmond Ridder's rushing yards trend reveals a quarterback whose mobility is being systematically undervalued by oddsmakers. The 14.4-yard average against a 12.7-yard line represents a meaningful edge that has persisted across 10 games, suggesting this isn't random variance but a structural mispricing. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money could be following this trend. Ridder's rushing ability likely stems from designed runs in goal-line and short-yardage situations, plus scrambles when pocket protection breaks down. The 6-4 over record with a recent 5-game over streak demonstrates consistency rather than boom-bust volatility. However, the current 1-game under streak and -23.6% under ROI suggests some regression risk. The key concern is whether this sample captures Ridder's true rushing floor or if game script and opponent adjustments could limit future opportunities. Without injury concerns or significant scheme changes, this trend appears sustainable given his athletic profile and the Raiders' likely need for creative offensive solutions.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Ridder's 60% over rate and +1.7 average differential suggest oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his rushing ability. The +14.6% ROI provides a mathematical edge that justifies backing overs in favorable spots. Target games where the Raiders face strong pass defenses or are expected to trail, forcing more scrambling opportunities. The main risk is the recent under and potential for defenses to key on his mobility.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 14.5 | -2.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 13.5 | 15.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 30.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 10.5 | 26.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 38.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 18.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 15.5 | 6.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 16.5 | 3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Desmond Ridder's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Desmond Ridder has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0% rate). He's averaged 14.4 rushing yards against an average line of 12.7 yards, creating a positive +1.7 differential that has generated +14.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Desmond Ridder Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Desmond Ridder's rushing yards props. His 60% over rate and +1.7 average differential above the line suggest oddsmakers are undervaluing his mobility. The +14.6% ROI on overs provides a mathematical edge, though recent regression warrants medium confidence rather than aggressive betting.
What's Desmond Ridder's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Desmond Ridder has averaged 14.4 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 12.7 yards. This +1.7 differential indicates he's consistently exceeding expectations, suggesting his mobility creates more rushing opportunities than bookmakers initially price in.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Desmond Ridder rushing yards overs when the Raiders face strong pass defenses or are expected to trail, creating more scrambling opportunities. Avoid games against elite run defenses or when the Raiders are heavily favored, as these scenarios limit designed quarterback runs.