Desmond Ridder's passing touchdown props present a clear under opportunity, with the Raiders quarterback hitting just 41.7% of his overs (5-7-0 record) while averaging 0.83 touchdowns against a 1.08 line. The under bet has delivered an 11.4% ROI, making it the preferred side.
Expert Analysis
Ridder's touchdown struggles stem from fundamental quarterback limitations that became apparent during his Atlanta tenure. His 0.83 touchdown average sits 0.25 touchdowns below typical market lines, indicating consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers. The 20.4% loss rate on overs versus 11.4% profit on unders represents a meaningful edge that reflects Ridder's limited arm talent and decision-making issues in the red zone. His four-game under streak earlier in the sample demonstrates how quickly these props can cascade when a quarterback lacks the precision required for consistent touchdown production. The Raiders' offensive system, while more quarterback-friendly than Atlanta's, still demands accuracy and timing that Ridder has historically struggled to provide. His touchdown rate regression appears sustainable given his mechanical inconsistencies and tendency to force throws under pressure. The 12-game sample from his starting stint provides sufficient data to identify this pattern, particularly since it spans different offensive coordinators and game scripts. Ridder's ceiling remains limited by his processing speed and arm strength, making consistent multi-touchdown games unlikely regardless of matchup favorability.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Ridder's 0.25 touchdown deficit per game against market expectations creates a sustainable edge, supported by his fundamental limitations as a passer. Target unders when lines sit at 1.0 or higher, especially in games where the Raiders may lean on their ground game. The primary risk involves potential garbage-time production in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Desmond Ridder's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Ridder's passing touchdown props show a 5-7-0 record (41.7% overs) across 12 games, with unders hitting 58.3% of the time. His average of 0.83 touchdowns per game falls well short of typical market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Desmond Ridder Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Ridder's passing touchdown props. His consistent underperformance against market lines, combined with fundamental quarterback limitations, creates a profitable edge that has delivered 11.4% ROI on under bets.
What's Desmond Ridder's average Passing TDs all games?
Ridder averages 0.83 passing touchdowns per game, which sits 0.25 touchdowns below the typical 1.08 line. This 23% gap between production and market expectation drives the under edge consistently.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ridder touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, particularly in games where Las Vegas may emphasize their running game or face strong pass defenses that limit red zone opportunities.