Derrick Henry's rushing yards prop presents a fascinating contradiction - he's averaging 113.9 yards against 91.8 lines (+22.1 differential) yet hitting overs just 50% of the time. The negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing despite Henry's consistent volume advantage. Lean Under due to recent regression streak.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story of market efficiency catching up to raw production. Henry's 113.9-yard average represents a substantial 24% premium over his typical 91.8 line, yet the 5-5 over/under record reveals how sportsbooks have adjusted to his Ravens renaissance. The negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) indicates sharp money has eliminated obvious edges. Henry's current one-game under streak follows a season-long pattern of volatility - he posted a four-game over streak earlier but also endured a two-game under run. This inconsistency stems from Baltimore's evolving offensive identity as they balance Henry's ground dominance with Lamar Jackson's dual-threat capabilities. The Ravens' playoff push has created game script variance that makes Henry's workload less predictable than his Tennessee days. While his per-carry efficiency remains elite, the combination of tighter lines and situational usage creates a prop that's more coin flip than systematic edge. The market has clearly learned to price Henry's floor higher while capping his ceiling expectations, creating a betting environment where his raw talent meets sophisticated oddsmaking.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market has overcorrected for Henry's early-season dominance, but his recent under suggests natural regression toward more realistic expectations. Target unders when lines exceed 100 yards, especially in potential blowout scenarios where Baltimore might limit his touches. The primary risk remains Henry's proven ability to break slate with explosive runs that can instantly flip any under bet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 96.5 | 84.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 99.5 | 186.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 93.5 | 138.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 91.5 | 147.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 85.5 | 162.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 104.5 | 67.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 85.5 | 82.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 85.5 | 140.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 86.5 | 65.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 89.5 | 68.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Derrick Henry has gone 5-5 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% despite averaging 113.9 yards per game. This even split occurred against an average line of 91.8 yards, showing market adjustment to his production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean Under on Henry's rushing yards props. Despite his strong 113.9-yard average, the 50% hit rate and negative ROI suggest the market has properly adjusted. Target unders when lines exceed 100 yards or in potential blowout scenarios.
What's Derrick Henry's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Henry is averaging 113.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 91.8 yards, creating a +22.1 differential. However, this 24% edge hasn't translated to profitable over betting due to market corrections.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry rushing yards unders when lines exceed 100 yards or in games where Baltimore projects as heavy favorites. Avoid betting overs during his current regression streak unless facing historically weak run defenses with confirmed heavy workload.