Derrick Henry's rushing yards prop in home games presents one of the most reliable trends in the NFL, hitting the over at a dominant 77.8% clip across 18 games. The Ravens workhorse averages 110.3 rushing yards at home against lines typically set around 76.6, creating a massive +33.7 yard differential that translates to exceptional value for over bettors.
Expert Analysis
The dominance of Henry's home rushing performances stems from Baltimore's strategic approach at M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens lean heavily into their ground-and-pound identity. The familiar turf conditions and crowd energy create an optimal environment for Henry's punishing running style, while the Ravens' coaching staff appears more willing to feed their bell-cow back extended touches in front of the home crowd. The 110.3 yard average represents a significant 44% premium over his typical prop lines, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue Henry's home field advantage. This isn't simply variance—the trend spans multiple seasons and different offensive coordinators, indicating a systemic edge. The Ravens' home game scripts often favor sustained drives where Henry can wear down defenses, particularly in the second half when his physical style becomes most effective. Weather factors at M&T Bank Stadium during late-season games also tend to favor run-heavy approaches. The 48.5% ROI over 18 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only four under results across nearly two full seasons. Most importantly, the trend shows no signs of regression, with Henry currently riding a three-game over streak at home.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Henry's home rushing yards prop represents premium betting value with an elite 77.8% hit rate backed by substantial statistical evidence. The ideal conditions are any home game where weather favors ground attacks or the Ravens are favored by less than a touchdown, forcing them to rely on ball control. The primary risk is a blowout victory where Baltimore rests Henry early, but even then, his explosive capability makes the over achievable in limited touches.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 99.5 | 186.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 93.5 | 138.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 85.5 | 162.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 85.5 | 82.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 89.5 | 68.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 90.5 | 106.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 88.5 | 132.0 | +43.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 68.5 | 199.0 | +130.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 73.5 | 84.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 50.5 | 153.0 | +102.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 60.5 | 88.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 68.5 | 9.0 | -59.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 67.5 | 102.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 72.5 | 76.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 64.5 | 101.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Derrick Henry has gone over his rushing yards prop in 14 of 18 home games (77.8%), with only 4 unders. This represents one of the most consistent player prop trends in the NFL, spanning multiple seasons and maintaining remarkable reliability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Rushing Yards home games?
Bet the OVER on Henry's rushing yards in home games. The 77.8% hit rate with +48.5% ROI provides exceptional value, especially when his props are set in the typical 75-80 yard range where he consistently exceeds expectations.
What's Derrick Henry's average Rushing Yards home games?
Henry averages 110.3 rushing yards in home games compared to typical prop lines around 76.6 yards. This creates a massive +33.7 yard differential, meaning he beats his number by an average of 44% in home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry's rushing props in any Ravens home game, particularly during cold weather or when Baltimore is a slight favorite. Avoid only in potential blowout situations where the Ravens might rest him early, though his big-play ability provides insurance even then.