Derrick Henry has hit the over on his rushing yards prop just 46.2% of the time in divisional games, going 6-7 over his last 13 contests. Despite averaging 90.08 yards against a 77.35 average line, the -11.9% ROI on overs suggests consistent overvaluation by oddsmakers in these rivalry matchups.
Expert Analysis
The numbers reveal a fascinating disconnect between Henry's production and market expectations in divisional games. While the veteran back averages 90.08 rushing yards against lines averaging 77.35—a robust +12.7 differential—the poor 46.2% over rate exposes the betting market's tendency to overestimate his ceiling in these heated rivalry contests. Divisional games historically feature more conservative game scripts, tighter defensive schemes, and heightened emotional intensity that can disrupt rhythm runners like Henry. The -11.9% ROI on overs indicates consistent line inflation, likely driven by Henry's reputation and casual money gravitating toward the obvious narrative. However, his recent three-game over streak suggests potential momentum, though this could represent variance rather than sustainable improvement. The key concern lies in Baltimore's evolving offensive identity—as Lamar Jackson's passing game matures and the Ravens face more sophisticated divisional defenses twice annually, Henry's workload and efficiency may continue facing headwinds. The modest +2.8% under ROI provides a slight mathematical edge, but the margin isn't overwhelming enough to ignore game-specific factors that could favor explosive performances.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 46.2% over rate combined with -11.9% ROI on overs indicates systematic line overvaluation in divisional contests. Target unders when Henry faces well-prepared division rivals who've had extra time to scheme against Baltimore's ground attack, particularly in games where weather or game script favors conservative approaches. Main risk is Henry's explosive ceiling—he can single-handedly destroy any trend with one breakaway performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 99.5 | 186.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 93.5 | 138.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 85.5 | 162.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 86.5 | 65.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 89.5 | 68.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 92.5 | 73.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 83.5 | 92.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 50.5 | 153.0 | +102.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 54.5 | 42.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 68.5 | 9.0 | -59.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 67.5 | 102.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 58.5 | 38.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 75.5 | 43.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Rushing Yards prop record divisional games?
Derrick Henry is 6-7 on rushing yards overs in divisional games over his last 13 contests, hitting just 46.2% of overs. This represents a clear underperformance relative to typical 52.4% break-even expectations for standard -110 props.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Rushing Yards divisional games?
Lean under on Derrick Henry's rushing yards in divisional games. The 46.2% over rate and -11.9% ROI on overs indicates consistent market overvaluation, while unders show a modest +2.8% profit margin in these rivalry matchups.
What's Derrick Henry's average Rushing Yards divisional games?
Derrick Henry averages 90.08 rushing yards in divisional games against an average line of 77.35 yards, creating a +12.7 differential. However, this production advantage hasn't translated to profitable over bets due to inflated market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry rushing yards unders in divisional games when facing well-rested opponents coming off bye weeks or when weather conditions favor conservative game scripts. Avoid betting his props in primetime divisional games where casual money inflates lines further.