Derrick Henry shows moderate value on rushing yards overs in conference games, hitting 53.8% with a solid +15.8 yard differential above betting lines. The 26-game sample reveals consistent production averaging 92.5 yards against 76.69 lines. Lean over with measured expectations.
Expert Analysis
Henry's conference game rushing performance demonstrates the kind of steady floor that makes him a reliable over play, though not a slam dunk. The +15.8 yard differential above betting lines suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production in divisional and conference matchups. This edge likely stems from Henry's punishing style wearing down familiar defenses that see him twice yearly, plus Baltimore's commitment to establishing the ground game in crucial conference battles. The 53.8% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the positive differential indicates meaningful line value when it appears. Henry's physical running style tends to produce more consistent yardage floors against conference opponents who know what's coming but struggle to stop it anyway. The recent under streak of just one game suggests normal variance rather than declining performance. However, the modest 2.8% ROI on overs indicates this isn't a massive market inefficiency. The trend appears sustainable given Henry's role as Baltimore's primary ground weapon and the strategic importance of controlling games against conference rivals through ball control.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Henry's consistent production above betting lines in conference games creates modest but reliable value. The +15.8 yard differential suggests oddsmakers underestimate his effectiveness against familiar opponents. Best spots are when lines sit in the mid-70s range where his 92.5 average provides comfortable cushion. Main risk is Baltimore falling behind early and abandoning the ground game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 96.5 | 84.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 99.5 | 186.0 | +86.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 93.5 | 138.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 91.5 | 147.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 85.5 | 162.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 85.5 | 140.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 86.5 | 65.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 89.5 | 68.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 90.5 | 106.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 92.5 | 73.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 83.5 | 92.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 68.5 | 199.0 | +130.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 73.5 | 84.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 63.5 | 46.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 50.5 | 153.0 | +102.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Henry's rushing yards prop record in conference games stands at 14-12-0 over/under (53.8% overs) across 26 games. He averages 92.5 rushing yards against betting lines of 76.69, creating a positive 15.8-yard differential that favors over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Rushing Yards conference games?
Lean over on Henry's rushing yards in conference games. The consistent +15.8 yard differential above betting lines and 53.8% over rate indicate modest but reliable value. Focus on spots where lines sit in the mid-70s for maximum edge.
What's Derrick Henry's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Henry averages 92.5 rushing yards in conference games, significantly outpacing the typical betting line of 76.69 yards. This 15.8-yard positive differential represents the core value proposition, suggesting oddsmakers consistently underestimate his conference game production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Henry rushing overs when lines fall in the 70-80 yard range, maximizing the differential advantage. Conference games where Baltimore is favored or in close spreads offer the best setup, as game script supports sustained rushing attempts.