Derrick Henry's rushing yards unders in away games present a compelling 67% win rate with strong +27.3% ROI over 18 games. The veteran back averages 76.3 yards against lines of 77.2, creating consistent value. This trend points to lean under opportunities.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a clear story about Derrick Henry's road rushing performance: books consistently overestimate his production away from home. His 76.28-yard average against 77.17-yard lines represents a systematic mispricing that sharp bettors can exploit. The 33.3% over rate across 18 games isn't random variance—it reflects real factors that diminish Henry's effectiveness on the road. Away environments typically feature hostile crowds, unfamiliar field conditions, and often stronger defensive game plans as teams prepare more thoroughly for home contests. Henry's physical running style, while dominant, can be neutralized by disciplined defensive fronts that have extra preparation time. The -36.4% ROI on overs serves as a stark warning about the consistent overvaluation of his road rushing totals. Most telling is the current streak pattern: Henry just hit an under, following his historical tendency toward streaky performance. The longest under streak of 5 games suggests that when this trend kicks in, it can persist. With books still setting lines above his demonstrated road average, the mathematical edge remains intact. The key risk lies in potential regression to the mean, but 18 games provides sufficient sample size to trust the underlying factors driving this trend.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 67% win rate and positive ROI create legitimate value, particularly when Henry's lines exceed 78 yards on the road. Target spots where Baltimore faces strong run defenses or in divisional away games where opponents know his tendencies. Main risk is a breakout performance that could temporarily shift market perception, but the underlying road factors remain consistent.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 96.5 | 84.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 91.5 | 147.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 104.5 | 67.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 85.5 | 140.0 | +54.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 86.5 | 65.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 92.5 | 73.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 86.5 | 169.0 | +82.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 83.5 | 92.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 67.5 | 151.0 | +83.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-05 | OPP | 63.5 | 46.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 54.5 | 42.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-11 | OPP | 54.5 | 34.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 58.5 | 38.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 62.5 | 24.0 | -38.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 72.5 | 75.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derrick Henry's Rushing Yards prop record away games?
Derrick Henry's rushing yards prop record in away games stands at 6-12-0 over/under (33.3% overs). This represents 18 total games from September 2023 through January 2025, showing consistent under performance on the road.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derrick Henry Rushing Yards away games?
Bet under on Derrick Henry's rushing yards in away games. The 67% under win rate and +27.3% ROI provide clear mathematical advantage, especially when lines exceed 78 yards on the road.
What's Derrick Henry's average Rushing Yards away games?
Derrick Henry averages 76.28 rushing yards in away games compared to average lines of 77.17 yards. This -0.9 yard differential consistently favors under bettors across his 18-game road sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Derrick Henry rushing yard unders when lines exceed 78 yards in away games, particularly against strong run defenses or in divisional road contests where opponents have extra preparation time.