Derek Carr's rushing yards props have delivered consistent value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip with a +4.0 yard differential above typical lines. The Saints quarterback has exceeded expectations by averaging 6.0 rushing yards against 2.0 yard lines, creating a profitable +14.6% ROI on overs.
Expert Analysis
Derek Carr's rushing production surge reflects the Saints' evolving offensive identity under pressure situations and red zone packages. The 6.0 yard average against 2.0 yard lines represents a massive 300% outperformance, suggesting sportsbooks haven't adjusted to Carr's increased mobility within New Orleans' system. This isn't vintage scrambling—it's strategic quarterback runs and designed rollouts that capitalize on defensive aggression. The consistency is remarkable, with Carr avoiding the typical quarterback rushing volatility through calculated pocket movement and short-yardage situations. The current three-game over streak indicates momentum rather than regression territory, particularly given the modest line expectations. However, the small sample size and potential for defensive adjustments pose risks. The Saints' offensive coordinator has clearly identified Carr's legs as an underutilized weapon, especially near the goal line where traditional pocket passing becomes constrained. This systematic approach to quarterback rushing creates a sustainable edge that extends beyond random scrambling or garbage-time desperation plays.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% over rate combined with a substantial +4.0 yard differential suggests genuine value in Carr's rushing props. The trend appears systematic rather than fluky, driven by offensive design changes that sportsbooks haven't fully priced in. Target overs when lines remain at historical 2.0 yard levels, but monitor for potential line adjustments that could erode the edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 12.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 8.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 17.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 14.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Derek Carr's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Derek Carr has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), delivering a strong +14.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors faced a -23.6% loss rate during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Derek Carr Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Derek Carr's rushing yards props. His 6.0 yard average significantly exceeds typical 2.0 yard lines, and the Saints' offensive system changes appear sustainable rather than fluky, creating consistent value for over bettors.
What's Derek Carr's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Derek Carr has averaged 6.0 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which represents a +4.0 yard differential above typical 2.0 yard prop lines, indicating substantial outperformance that creates betting value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Carr rushing overs when lines remain at historical 2.0-2.5 yard levels, particularly in games where the Saints face aggressive pass rushes or red zone situations that encourage designed quarterback movement and rollout packages.